Forward trio
52:10 together · 8 games
- Corsi for / against
- 53 / 44
- Fenwick for / against
- 37 / 28
- Corsi share
- 54.6%
- Fenwick share
- 56.9%
- xG for / against
- 2.84 / 1.40
Vegas Golden Knights vs Detroit Red Wings prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 4, 2026
NHL matchup
Vegas Golden Knights at Detroit Red Wings
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 4, 2026.
March 4, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 prediction is not available yet for this game.
View final boxscore
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 4. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Vegas Golden Knights
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Defense pair
138:15 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 130 / 128
- Fenwick for / against
- 92 / 92
- Corsi share
- 50.4%
- Fenwick share
- 50.0%
- xG for / against
- 4.80 / 5.06
Detroit Red Wings
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
99:35 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 101 / 94
- Fenwick for / against
- 69 / 63
- Corsi share
- 51.8%
- Fenwick share
- 52.3%
- xG for / against
- 3.97 / 3.93
Defense pair
88:11 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 79 / 64
- Fenwick for / against
- 57 / 37
- Corsi share
- 55.2%
- Fenwick share
- 60.6%
- xG for / against
- 4.32 / 2.13
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Akira Schmid
Vegas Golden Knights · Last start: Mar 3
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 129
- Save %
- 89.1
- Goals allowed
- 14
- Close-range shots %
- 21.7
John Gibson
Detroit Red Wings · Last start: Mar 2
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 100
- Save %
- 91.0
- Goals allowed
- 9
- Close-range shots %
- 32.0
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 4, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Vegas Golden Knights
- xG for / game
- 3.17
- xG against / game
- 2.66
- xG differential / game
- 0.51
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Detroit Red Wings
- xG for / game
- 2.77
- xG against / game
- 3.02
- xG differential / game
- -0.25
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 4, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Vegas Golden Knights
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 58.8
- Corsi share (%)
- 51.7
- Fenwick share (%)
- 51.8
- Faceoff win %
- 51.6
- Penalties / game
- 3.0
Shots / game: 27.0 · Shooting: 11.1% · Avg distance: 32.3 ft
Detroit Red Wings
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 59.9
- Corsi share (%)
- 49.8
- Fenwick share (%)
- 50.7
- Faceoff win %
- 52.2
- Penalties / game
- 3.1
Shots / game: 27.7 · Shooting: 8.3% · Avg distance: 33.1 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
VGK
|
Metric |
DET
|
|---|---|---|
| 17 | Points | 13 |
| 0.654 | Points % | 0.542 |
| 47 | Goals for | 33 |
| 38 | Goals against | 37 |
| 9 | Goal differential | -4 |
| OT1 | Current streak | W1 |
Road versus home
|
VGK road
|
Metric |
DET home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 7 |
| 3 | Wins | 3 |
| 7 | Points | 7 |
| 1 | Goal differential | -3 |
Last 10 games
|
VGK
|
Metric |
DET
|
|---|---|---|
| 6-3-1 | Record | 5-2-3 |
| 13 | Points | 13 |
| 36 | Goals for | 31 |
| 30 | Goals against | 32 |
| 6 | Goal differential | -1 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
VGK
5 wins
10
games reviewed
DET
5 wins
Total goals29 – 28
Goal differential
+1
/
-1
Goals per game2.9 / 2.8
Shots per game30.5 / 26.4
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2025 |
Detroit Red Wings
at
Vegas Golden Knights
|
0 - 1 | 24 - 34 | View |
| Mar 22, 2025 |
Detroit Red Wings
at
Vegas Golden Knights
|
3 - 6 | 31 - 36 | View |
| Mar 16, 2025 |
Vegas Golden Knights
at
Detroit Red Wings
|
0 - 3 | 18 - 27 | View |
| Mar 9, 2024 |
Detroit Red Wings
at
Vegas Golden Knights
|
3 - 5 | 26 - 36 | View |
| Jan 27, 2024 |
Vegas Golden Knights
at
Detroit Red Wings
|
2 - 5 | 30 - 29 | View |
| Jan 19, 2023 |
Detroit Red Wings
at
Vegas Golden Knights
|
3 - 2 | 25 - 35 | View |
| Dec 3, 2022 |
Vegas Golden Knights
at
Detroit Red Wings
|
4 - 1 | 25 - 25 | View |
| Nov 18, 2021 |
Detroit Red Wings
at
Vegas Golden Knights
|
2 - 5 | 28 - 32 | View |
| Nov 7, 2021 |
Vegas Golden Knights
at
Detroit Red Wings
|
2 - 5 | 40 - 30 | View |
| Nov 10, 2019 |
Vegas Golden Knights
at
Detroit Red Wings
|
2 - 3 | 19 - 19 | View |