Forward trio
62:53 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 60 / 59
- Fenwick for / against
- 42 / 38
- Corsi share
- 50.4%
- Fenwick share
- 52.5%
- xG for / against
- 2.94 / 2.09
Vegas Golden Knights vs Buffalo Sabres prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 3, 2026
NHL matchup
Vegas Golden Knights at Buffalo Sabres
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 3, 2026.
March 3, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 prediction is not available yet for this game.
View final boxscore
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 3. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Vegas Golden Knights
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Defense pair
147:10 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 134 / 137
- Fenwick for / against
- 89 / 97
- Corsi share
- 49.4%
- Fenwick share
- 47.8%
- xG for / against
- 4.78 / 4.99
Buffalo Sabres
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
99:53 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 95 / 100
- Fenwick for / against
- 75 / 79
- Corsi share
- 48.7%
- Fenwick share
- 48.7%
- xG for / against
- 6.61 / 6.73
Defense pair
102:55 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 86 / 93
- Fenwick for / against
- 69 / 72
- Corsi share
- 48.0%
- Fenwick share
- 48.9%
- xG for / against
- 4.71 / 5.29
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Adin Hill
Vegas Golden Knights · Last start: Mar 1
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 123
- Save %
- 86.2
- Goals allowed
- 17
- Close-range shots %
- 29.3
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
Buffalo Sabres · Last start: Feb 28
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 134
- Save %
- 93.3
- Goals allowed
- 9
- Close-range shots %
- 38.8
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 3, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Vegas Golden Knights
- xG for / game
- 3.03
- xG against / game
- 2.66
- xG differential / game
- 0.37
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Buffalo Sabres
- xG for / game
- 3.35
- xG against / game
- 3.51
- xG differential / game
- -0.17
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 3, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Vegas Golden Knights
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 57.8
- Corsi share (%)
- 50.6
- Fenwick share (%)
- 50.2
- Faceoff win %
- 52.8
- Penalties / game
- 3.0
Shots / game: 26.1 · Shooting: 11.1% · Avg distance: 31.9 ft
Buffalo Sabres
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 57.6
- Corsi share (%)
- 48.6
- Fenwick share (%)
- 48.9
- Faceoff win %
- 44.0
- Penalties / game
- 3.6
Shots / game: 29.9 · Shooting: 13.0% · Avg distance: 33.5 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
VGK
|
Metric |
BUF
|
|---|---|---|
| 17 | Points | 11 |
| 0.654 | Points % | 0.500 |
| 47 | Goals for | 31 |
| 38 | Goals against | 41 |
| 9 | Goal differential | -10 |
| OT1 | Current streak | OT1 |
Road versus home
|
VGK road
|
Metric |
BUF home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 6 |
| 3 | Wins | 3 |
| 7 | Points | 6 |
| 1 | Goal differential | -5 |
Last 10 games
|
VGK
|
Metric |
BUF
|
|---|---|---|
| 6-3-1 | Record | 4-3-3 |
| 13 | Points | 11 |
| 36 | Goals for | 28 |
| 30 | Goals against | 35 |
| 6 | Goal differential | -7 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
VGK
4 wins
10
games reviewed
BUF
6 wins
Total goals31 – 35
Goal differential
-4
/
+4
Goals per game3.1 / 3.5
Shots per game31.0 / 29.2
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2025 |
Vegas Golden Knights
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
3 - 4 | 19 - 37 | View |
| Jan 4, 2025 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Vegas Golden Knights
|
1 - 3 | 24 - 33 | View |
| Mar 2, 2024 |
Vegas Golden Knights
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
2 - 7 | 24 - 35 | View |
| Dec 15, 2023 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Vegas Golden Knights
|
5 - 2 | 27 - 35 | View |
| Dec 19, 2022 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Vegas Golden Knights
|
3 - 2 | 18 - 43 | View |
| Nov 10, 2022 |
Vegas Golden Knights
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
7 - 4 | 36 - 35 | View |
| Mar 10, 2022 |
Vegas Golden Knights
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
1 - 3 | 31 - 24 | View |
| Feb 1, 2022 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Vegas Golden Knights
|
2 - 5 | 32 - 35 | View |
| Feb 28, 2020 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Vegas Golden Knights
|
2 - 4 | 34 - 28 | View |
| Jan 14, 2020 |
Vegas Golden Knights
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
2 - 4 | 26 - 26 | View |