Away team
Utah Mammoth
52.1%
Fair American
-109
Fair decimal
1.92
Utah Mammoth vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 3, 2026
NHL matchup
Utah Mammoth at Toronto Maple Leafs
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for November 3, 2026.
November 3, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Utah Mammoth at 52.1%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Toronto Maple Leafs
47.9%
Fair American
+109
Fair decimal
2.09
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 3, 2026.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 11
- Record
- 7-4
- Net units
- 1.27
- ROI
- 11.6%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 5-2
- Net units
- 2.46
- ROI
- 35.2%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 9
- Record
- 6-3
- Net units
- 1.21
- ROI
- 13.5%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 4-3
- Net units
- 1.65
- ROI
- 23.6%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 5-2
- Net units
- 4.60
- ROI
- 65.8%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 5
- Record
- 2-3
- Net units
- -1.55
- ROI
- -31.0%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 3. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Utah Mammoth
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
69:58 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 101 / 56
- Fenwick for / against
- 75 / 37
- Corsi share
- 64.3%
- Fenwick share
- 67.0%
- xG for / against
- 6.21 / 1.77
Defense pair
119:15 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 146 / 103
- Fenwick for / against
- 100 / 71
- Corsi share
- 58.6%
- Fenwick share
- 58.5%
- xG for / against
- 7.66 / 4.72
Toronto Maple Leafs
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
46:17 together · 8 games
- Corsi for / against
- 40 / 49
- Fenwick for / against
- 37 / 33
- Corsi share
- 44.9%
- Fenwick share
- 52.9%
- xG for / against
- 1.95 / 1.65
Defense pair
104:16 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 87 / 118
- Fenwick for / against
- 71 / 87
- Corsi share
- 42.4%
- Fenwick share
- 44.9%
- xG for / against
- 4.07 / 4.98
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Utah Mammoth
Expected starter unavailable.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Karel Vejmelka
Utah Mammoth · Last start: Oct 24
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 124
- Save %
- 84.7
- Goals allowed
- 19
- Close-range shots %
- 26.6
Anthony Stolarz
Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 24
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 150
- Save %
- 90.7
- Goals allowed
- 14
- Close-range shots %
- 31.3
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 3, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Utah Mammoth
- xG for / game
- 3.73
- xG against / game
- 2.81
- xG differential / game
- 0.92
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Toronto Maple Leafs
- xG for / game
- 3.20
- xG against / game
- 3.44
- xG differential / game
- -0.24
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 3, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Utah Mammoth
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 65.4
- Corsi share (%)
- 55.3
- Fenwick share (%)
- 55.3
- Faceoff win %
- 53.6
- Penalties / game
- 4.4
Shots / game: 30.2 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 31.1 ft
Toronto Maple Leafs
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 54.0
- Corsi share (%)
- 46.0
- Fenwick share (%)
- 48.2
- Faceoff win %
- 53.1
- Penalties / game
- 4.2
Shots / game: 29.0 · Shooting: 15.2% · Avg distance: 32.5 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
UTA
|
Metric |
TOR
|
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Points | 16 |
| 0.667 | Points % | 0.615 |
| 46 | Goals for | 50 |
| 40 | Goals against | 41 |
| 6 | Goal differential | 9 |
| W1 | Current streak | W4 |
Road versus home
|
UTA road
|
Metric |
TOR home
|
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Games | 8 |
| 4 | Wins | 4 |
| 8 | Points | 9 |
| 1 | Goal differential | -1 |
Last 10 games
|
UTA
|
Metric |
TOR
|
|---|---|---|
| 6-4-0 | Record | 6-2-2 |
| 12 | Points | 14 |
| 36 | Goals for | 44 |
| 39 | Goals against | 34 |
| -3 | Goal differential | 10 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
UTA
2 wins
3
games reviewed
TOR
1 wins
Total goals14 – 10
Goal differential
+4
/
-4
Goals per game4.67 / 3.33
Shots per game30.7 / 21.7
Utah Mammoth
