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Utah Mammoth vs Seattle Kraken prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 22, 2026

NHL matchup

Utah Mammoth at Seattle Kraken

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 22, 2026.

October 22, 2026 · 9:00 PM CST
Away

Utah Mammoth

8-4-0

3 Model pick
Final
Home

Seattle Kraken

7-4-1

5
Model V2 pick: Utah Mammoth at 51.7% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Utah Mammoth logo
Away team

Utah Mammoth

51.7%
Fair American -107
Fair decimal 1.93
Best market -169 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 62.8%
Edge -11.1%
Expected value -17.7%
Calculate value
Seattle Kraken logo
Home team

Seattle Kraken

48.3%
Fair American +107
Fair decimal 2.07
Best market +150 · Bovada
Market implied 40.0%
Edge +8.3%
Expected value +20.8%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 22, 2026.

Utah Mammoth

All Model Picks

Bets
9
Record
6-3
Net units
1.56
ROI
17.3%

Value Picks

Bets
6
Record
4-2
Net units
1.75
ROI
29.1%

Market Favourite

Bets
7
Record
5-2
Net units
1.50
ROI
21.4%
Full team betting results

Seattle Kraken

All Model Picks

Bets
4
Record
4-0
Net units
3.88
ROI
97.1%

Value Picks

Bets
8
Record
4-4
Net units
1.07
ROI
13.3%

Market Favourite

Bets
2
Record
2-0
Net units
1.59
ROI
79.6%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 22. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Utah Mammoth

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

56:22 together · 10 games

xG share55.7%
Corsi for / against
48 / 42
Fenwick for / against
36 / 28
Corsi share
53.3%
Fenwick share
56.3%
xG for / against
2.60 / 2.07
Defense pair

120:42 together · 9 games

xG share59.2%
Corsi for / against
141 / 93
Fenwick for / against
102 / 66
Corsi share
60.3%
Fenwick share
60.7%
xG for / against
6.78 / 4.68
All observed combinations

Seattle Kraken

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

151:18 together · 10 games

xG share43.5%
Corsi for / against
119 / 217
Fenwick for / against
87 / 153
Corsi share
35.4%
Fenwick share
36.3%
xG for / against
6.24 / 8.10
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Utah Mammoth

Karel Vejmelka 76.0%
Other eligible goalies

Why Karel Vejmelka?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.712
Prev save pct
-0.491
Rolling 5 game avg save pct
-0.444
Goalie win pct before
+0.384
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.326
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 22, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Seattle Kraken

Philipp Grubauer 53.7%
Other eligible goalies

Why Philipp Grubauer?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Team win pct before
-0.348
Started last game
-0.319
Won previous appearance
+0.319
Prev save pct
-0.137
Consecutive starts
-0.105
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 22, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Sebastian Cossa

Utah Mammoth · Last start: Oct 19

4 / 4 appearances covered

Shots faced
50
Save %
82.0
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
34.0

Philipp Grubauer

Seattle Kraken · Last start: Oct 20

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
132
Save %
90.2
Goals allowed
13
Close-range shots %
28.8
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 22, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Utah Mammoth

xG for / game
3.75
xG against / game
2.65
xG differential / game
1.10

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Seattle Kraken

xG for / game
2.94
xG against / game
3.46
xG differential / game
-0.52

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 22, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Utah Mammoth

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
66.1
Corsi share (%)
56.4
Fenwick share (%)
57.0
Faceoff win %
53.0
Penalties / game
4.3

Shots / game: 30.1 · Shooting: 12.6% · Avg distance: 31.5 ft

Seattle Kraken

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
50.9
Corsi share (%)
42.8
Fenwick share (%)
44.6
Faceoff win %
51.2
Penalties / game
4.0

Shots / game: 26.5 · Shooting: 14.0% · Avg distance: 33.3 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Utah Mammoth UTA
Metric
Seattle Kraken SEA
16Points15
0.667Points %0.625
46Goals for45
40Goals against42
6Goal differential3
W1Current streakL1
Road versus home
Utah Mammoth UTA road
Metric
Seattle Kraken SEA home
7Games5
4Wins3
8Points6
1Goal differential0
Last 10 games
Utah Mammoth UTA
Metric
Seattle Kraken SEA
6-4-0Record6-3-1
12Points13
36Goals for38
39Goals against38
-3Goal differential0
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Utah Mammoth UTA 3 wins
3 games reviewed
Seattle Kraken SEA 0 wins
Total goals17 – 8
Goal differential +9 / -9
Goals per game5.67 / 2.67
Shots per game31.0 / 28.0
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Apr 2, 2026
Utah Mammoth Utah Mammoth at Seattle Kraken Seattle Kraken
6 - 2 31 - 27 View
Jan 17, 2026
Seattle Kraken Seattle Kraken at Utah Mammoth Utah Mammoth
3 - 6 21 - 30 View
Dec 12, 2025
Seattle Kraken Seattle Kraken at Utah Mammoth Utah Mammoth
3 - 5 36 - 32 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings UTA SEA