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Utah Mammoth vs Buffalo Sabres prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 10, 2026

NHL matchup

Utah Mammoth at Buffalo Sabres

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 10, 2026.

October 10, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Utah Mammoth

8-5-0

4 Model pick
Final
Home

Buffalo Sabres

5-4-3

1
Model V2 pick: Utah Mammoth at 51.3% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Utah Mammoth logo
Away team

Utah Mammoth

51.3%
Fair American -105
Fair decimal 1.95
Best market -107 · BetRivers
Market implied 51.7%
Edge -0.4%
Expected value -0.8%
Calculate value
Buffalo Sabres logo
Home team

Buffalo Sabres

48.7%
Fair American +105
Fair decimal 2.05
Best market -104 · FanDuel
Market implied 51.0%
Edge -2.3%
Expected value -4.5%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 10, 2026.

Utah Mammoth

All Model Picks

Bets
4
Record
2-2
Net units
-0.63
ROI
-15.8%

Value Picks

Bets
3
Record
2-1
Net units
1.04
ROI
34.8%

Market Favourite

Bets
3
Record
2-1
Net units
0.37
ROI
12.3%
Full team betting results

Buffalo Sabres

All Model Picks

Bets
4
Record
2-2
Net units
-0.60
ROI
-14.9%

Value Picks

Bets
2
Record
0-2
Net units
-2.00
ROI
-100.0%

Market Favourite

Bets
2
Record
1-1
Net units
-0.56
ROI
-27.9%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 10. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Utah Mammoth

5 / 5 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

66:18 together · 5 games

xG share49.6%
Corsi for / against
71 / 55
Fenwick for / against
49 / 42
Corsi share
56.3%
Fenwick share
53.8%
xG for / against
3.22 / 3.27
All observed combinations

Buffalo Sabres

4 / 4 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

48:09 together · 4 games

xG share66.9%
Corsi for / against
60 / 24
Fenwick for / against
44 / 17
Corsi share
71.4%
Fenwick share
72.1%
xG for / against
2.85 / 1.41
Defense pair

49:04 together · 4 games

xG share50.8%
Corsi for / against
50 / 33
Fenwick for / against
35 / 27
Corsi share
60.2%
Fenwick share
56.5%
xG for / against
2.07 / 2.00
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Sebastian Cossa

Utah Mammoth · Last start: Oct 8

2 / 2 appearances covered

Shots faced
27
Save %
85.2
Goals allowed
4
Close-range shots %
33.3

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Buffalo Sabres · Last start: Oct 8

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
55
Save %
78.2
Goals allowed
12
Close-range shots %
34.5
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 10, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Utah Mammoth

xG for / game
3.99
xG against / game
2.68
xG differential / game
1.31

5 / 5 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Buffalo Sabres

xG for / game
3.38
xG against / game
2.35
xG differential / game
1.03

4 / 4 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 10, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Utah Mammoth

5 / 5 games covered

Attempts / game
69.8
Corsi share (%)
58.4
Fenwick share (%)
58.8
Faceoff win %
53.1
Penalties / game
4.8

Shots / game: 32.2 · Shooting: 11.2% · Avg distance: 30.7 ft

Buffalo Sabres

4 / 4 games covered

Attempts / game
61.8
Corsi share (%)
60.1
Fenwick share (%)
59.9
Faceoff win %
47.3
Penalties / game
3.0

Shots / game: 27.0 · Shooting: 9.3% · Avg distance: 28.9 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Utah Mammoth UTA
Metric
Buffalo Sabres BUF
16Points13
0.615Points %0.542
47Goals for33
43Goals against41
4Goal differential-8
L1Current streakW1
Road versus home
Utah Mammoth UTA road
Metric
Buffalo Sabres BUF home
7Games6
4Wins3
8Points6
1Goal differential-5
Last 10 games
Utah Mammoth UTA
Metric
Buffalo Sabres BUF
6-4-0Record4-3-3
12Points11
35Goals for26
38Goals against32
-3Goal differential-6
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Utah Mammoth UTA 2 wins
2 games reviewed
Buffalo Sabres BUF 0 wins
Total goals7 – 3
Goal differential +4 / -4
Goals per game3.5 / 1.5
Shots per game36.0 / 18.5
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Nov 12, 2025
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Utah Mammoth Utah Mammoth
2 - 5 19 - 37 View
Nov 4, 2025
Utah Mammoth Utah Mammoth at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
2 - 1 35 - 18 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings UTA BUF