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Toronto Maple Leafs vs Vegas Golden Knights prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 8, 2026

NHL matchup

Toronto Maple Leafs at Vegas Golden Knights

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 8, 2026.

October 8, 2026 · 9:00 PM CST
Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

7-4-2

3
Final
Home

Vegas Golden Knights

8-4-1

4 Model pick
Model V2 pick: Vegas Golden Knights at 66.5% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Toronto Maple Leafs logo
Away team

Toronto Maple Leafs

33.5%
Fair American +199
Fair decimal 2.99
Best market +148 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 40.3%
Edge -6.8%
Expected value -16.9%
Calculate value
Vegas Golden Knights logo
Home team

Vegas Golden Knights

66.5%
Fair American -199
Fair decimal 1.5
Best market -163 · MyBookie.ag
Market implied 62.0%
Edge +4.5%
Expected value +7.3%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 8, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 8. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Toronto Maple Leafs

4 / 4 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

52:50 together · 4 games

xG share56.9%
Corsi for / against
65 / 44
Fenwick for / against
51 / 35
Corsi share
59.6%
Fenwick share
59.3%
xG for / against
2.84 / 2.15
All observed combinations

Vegas Golden Knights

4 / 4 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

38:06 together · 4 games

xG share66.1%
Corsi for / against
42 / 33
Fenwick for / against
30 / 22
Corsi share
56.0%
Fenwick share
57.7%
xG for / against
1.87 / 0.96
Defense pair

55:24 together · 4 games

xG share61.3%
Corsi for / against
63 / 48
Fenwick for / against
43 / 32
Corsi share
56.8%
Fenwick share
57.3%
xG for / against
3.06 / 1.93
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Anthony Stolarz

Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 6

2 / 2 appearances covered

Shots faced
52
Save %
90.4
Goals allowed
5
Close-range shots %
38.5

Carter Hart

Vegas Golden Knights · Last start: Oct 6

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
73
Save %
89.0
Goals allowed
8
Close-range shots %
27.4
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 8, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

xG for / game
3.18
xG against / game
3.45
xG differential / game
-0.26

4 / 4 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Vegas Golden Knights

xG for / game
3.93
xG against / game
2.26
xG differential / game
1.67

4 / 4 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 8, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

4 / 4 games covered

Attempts / game
59.5
Corsi share (%)
51.0
Fenwick share (%)
51.3
Faceoff win %
51.1
Penalties / game
3.5

Shots / game: 30.0 · Shooting: 9.2% · Avg distance: 29.3 ft

Vegas Golden Knights

4 / 4 games covered

Attempts / game
62.0
Corsi share (%)
58.1
Fenwick share (%)
57.2
Faceoff win %
53.0
Penalties / game
3.75

Shots / game: 30.8 · Shooting: 13.8% · Avg distance: 30.7 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Vegas Golden Knights VGK
16Points17
0.615Points %0.654
50Goals for47
41Goals against38
9Goal differential9
W4Current streakOT1
Road versus home
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR road
Metric
Vegas Golden Knights VGK home
5Games7
3Wins5
7Points10
10Goal differential8
Last 10 games
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Vegas Golden Knights VGK
6-2-2Record6-3-1
14Points13
44Goals for36
34Goals against30
10Goal differential6
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Toronto Maple Leafs TOR 4 wins
10 games reviewed
Vegas Golden Knights VGK 6 wins
Total goals34 – 36
Goal differential -2 / +2
Goals per game3.4 / 3.6
Shots per game28.3 / 29.1
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Jan 23, 2026
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
6 - 3 31 - 21 View
Jan 15, 2026
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
5 - 6 28 - 33 View
Mar 5, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
2 - 5 31 - 25 View
Nov 20, 2024
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
0 - 3 31 - 26 View
Feb 27, 2024
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
6 - 2 32 - 30 View
Feb 22, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
7 - 3 42 - 26 View
Nov 8, 2022
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
4 - 3 20 - 31 View
Oct 24, 2022
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
1 - 3 23 - 33 View
Jan 11, 2022
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
4 - 3 18 - 34 View
Nov 2, 2021
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
0 - 4 26 - 33 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings TOR VGK