Forward trio
85:04 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 78 / 82
- Fenwick for / against
- 62 / 65
- Corsi share
- 48.8%
- Fenwick share
- 48.8%
- xG for / against
- 4.70 / 3.53
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Vegas Golden Knights prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 15, 2026
NHL matchup
Toronto Maple Leafs at Vegas Golden Knights
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for January 15, 2026.
January 15, 2026
· 8:30 PM CST
Model V2 prediction is not available yet for this game.
View final boxscore
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 15. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Toronto Maple Leafs
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Defense pair
79:47 together · 8 games
- Corsi for / against
- 69 / 101
- Fenwick for / against
- 44 / 70
- Corsi share
- 40.6%
- Fenwick share
- 38.6%
- xG for / against
- 3.09 / 4.24
Vegas Golden Knights
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
68:09 together · 6 games
- Corsi for / against
- 56 / 57
- Fenwick for / against
- 37 / 36
- Corsi share
- 49.6%
- Fenwick share
- 50.7%
- xG for / against
- 2.40 / 2.24
Defense pair
103:15 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 87 / 86
- Fenwick for / against
- 56 / 62
- Corsi share
- 50.3%
- Fenwick share
- 47.5%
- xG for / against
- 3.59 / 3.85
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Dennis Hildeby
Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Jan 13
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 144
- Save %
- 89.6
- Goals allowed
- 15
- Close-range shots %
- 29.9
Akira Schmid
Vegas Golden Knights · Last start: Jan 14
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 106
- Save %
- 87.7
- Goals allowed
- 13
- Close-range shots %
- 34.9
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 15, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Toronto Maple Leafs
- xG for / game
- 2.91
- xG against / game
- 3.43
- xG differential / game
- -0.52
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Vegas Golden Knights
- xG for / game
- 2.81
- xG against / game
- 2.65
- xG differential / game
- 0.16
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 15, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Toronto Maple Leafs
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 52.6
- Corsi share (%)
- 43.1
- Fenwick share (%)
- 43.4
- Faceoff win %
- 53.5
- Penalties / game
- 3.4
Shots / game: 26.3 · Shooting: 14.4% · Avg distance: 34.8 ft
Vegas Golden Knights
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 52.2
- Corsi share (%)
- 48.2
- Fenwick share (%)
- 48.5
- Faceoff win %
- 45.8
- Penalties / game
- 2.7
Shots / game: 25.3 · Shooting: 14.6% · Avg distance: 31.0 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
TOR
|
Metric |
VGK
|
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Points | 19 |
| 0.571 | Points % | 0.679 |
| 52 | Goals for | 51 |
| 46 | Goals against | 39 |
| 6 | Goal differential | 12 |
| L1 | Current streak | W1 |
Road versus home
|
TOR road
|
Metric |
VGK home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 8 |
| 3 | Wins | 6 |
| 7 | Points | 12 |
| 7 | Goal differential | 11 |
Last 10 games
|
TOR
|
Metric |
VGK
|
|---|---|---|
| 5-3-2 | Record | 6-3-1 |
| 12 | Points | 13 |
| 41 | Goals for | 34 |
| 35 | Goals against | 29 |
| 6 | Goal differential | 5 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
TOR
5 wins
10
games reviewed
VGK
5 wins
Total goals30 – 29
Goal differential
+1
/
-1
Goals per game3.0 / 2.9
Shots per game30.4 / 30.2
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2025 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Vegas Golden Knights
|
2 - 5 | 31 - 25 | View |
| Nov 20, 2024 |
Vegas Golden Knights
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
0 - 3 | 31 - 26 | View |
| Feb 27, 2024 |
Vegas Golden Knights
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
6 - 2 | 32 - 30 | View |
| Feb 22, 2024 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Vegas Golden Knights
|
7 - 3 | 42 - 26 | View |
| Nov 8, 2022 |
Vegas Golden Knights
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
4 - 3 | 20 - 31 | View |
| Oct 24, 2022 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Vegas Golden Knights
|
1 - 3 | 23 - 33 | View |
| Jan 11, 2022 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Vegas Golden Knights
|
4 - 3 | 18 - 34 | View |
| Nov 2, 2021 |
Vegas Golden Knights
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
0 - 4 | 26 - 33 | View |
| Nov 19, 2019 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Vegas Golden Knights
|
2 - 4 | 33 - 37 | View |
| Nov 7, 2019 |
Vegas Golden Knights
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
1 - 2 | 38 - 37 | View |