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Toronto Maple Leafs vs Utah Mammoth prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 13, 2026

NHL matchup

Toronto Maple Leafs at Utah Mammoth

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 13, 2026.

October 13, 2026 · 8:00 PM CST
Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

7-4-2

4
Final
Home

Utah Mammoth

8-4-0

5 Model pick
Model V2 pick: Utah Mammoth at 64.8% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Toronto Maple Leafs logo
Away team

Toronto Maple Leafs

35.2%
Fair American +184
Fair decimal 2.84
Best market +138 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 42.0%
Edge -6.8%
Expected value -16.2%
Calculate value
Utah Mammoth logo
Home team

Utah Mammoth

64.8%
Fair American -184
Fair decimal 1.54
Best market -155 · BetUS
Market implied 60.8%
Edge +4.0%
Expected value +6.6%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 13, 2026.

Utah Mammoth

All Model Picks

Bets
5
Record
3-2
Net units
0.30
ROI
6.1%

Value Picks

Bets
3
Record
2-1
Net units
1.04
ROI
34.8%

Market Favourite

Bets
4
Record
3-1
Net units
1.30
ROI
32.6%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 13. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Toronto Maple Leafs

6 / 6 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

68:39 together · 6 games

xG share49.2%
Corsi for / against
81 / 73
Fenwick for / against
61 / 57
Corsi share
52.6%
Fenwick share
51.7%
xG for / against
3.33 / 3.44
All observed combinations

Utah Mammoth

6 / 6 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

77:17 together · 6 games

xG share54.2%
Corsi for / against
87 / 66
Fenwick for / against
63 / 49
Corsi share
56.9%
Fenwick share
56.3%
xG for / against
4.38 / 3.70
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Sergei Bobrovsky 55.0%
Other eligible goalies

Why Sergei Bobrovsky?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.593
Days since last start
+0.332
Won previous appearance
+0.312
Started last game
-0.298
Goalie win pct before
-0.204
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 13, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Utah Mammoth

Karel Vejmelka 82.8%
Other eligible goalies

Why Karel Vejmelka?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.855
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.546
Team win pct before
-0.354
Days since last start
+0.339
Started last game
-0.305
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 13, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Sergei Bobrovsky

Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 10

4 / 4 appearances covered

Shots faced
129
Save %
90.7
Goals allowed
12
Close-range shots %
38.0

Karel Vejmelka

Utah Mammoth · Last start: Oct 10

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
107
Save %
90.7
Goals allowed
10
Close-range shots %
35.5
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 13, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

xG for / game
2.95
xG against / game
3.93
xG differential / game
-0.98

6 / 6 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Utah Mammoth

xG for / game
4.14
xG against / game
2.70
xG differential / game
1.44

6 / 6 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 13, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

6 / 6 games covered

Attempts / game
55.8
Corsi share (%)
46.2
Fenwick share (%)
46.4
Faceoff win %
51.9
Penalties / game
4.17

Shots / game: 27.8 · Shooting: 12.0% · Avg distance: 30.9 ft

Utah Mammoth

6 / 6 games covered

Attempts / game
70.7
Corsi share (%)
57.7
Fenwick share (%)
58.8
Faceoff win %
53.2
Penalties / game
5.0

Shots / game: 31.8 · Shooting: 11.5% · Avg distance: 31.3 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Utah Mammoth UTA
16Points16
0.615Points %0.667
50Goals for46
41Goals against40
9Goal differential6
W4Current streakW1
Road versus home
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR road
Metric
Utah Mammoth UTA home
5Games5
3Wins4
7Points8
10Goal differential5
Last 10 games
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Utah Mammoth UTA
6-2-2Record6-4-0
14Points12
44Goals for36
34Goals against39
10Goal differential-3
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Toronto Maple Leafs TOR 1 wins
2 games reviewed
Utah Mammoth UTA 1 wins
Total goals6 – 9
Goal differential -3 / +3
Goals per game3.0 / 4.5
Shots per game19.5 / 32.0
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Jan 13, 2026
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Utah Mammoth Utah Mammoth
1 - 6 20 - 40 View
Nov 5, 2025
Utah Mammoth Utah Mammoth at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 5 24 - 19 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings TOR UTA