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Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 30, 2027

NHL matchup

Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 30, 2027.

March 30, 2027 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

7-4-2

46.8%
at
Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

7-3-1

53.2% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Tampa Bay Lightning at 53.2%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Toronto Maple Leafs logo
Away team

Toronto Maple Leafs

46.8%
Fair American +114
Fair decimal 2.14
Calculate value
Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Home team

Tampa Bay Lightning

53.2%
Fair American -114
Fair decimal 1.88
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Mar 30, 2027.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 30. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

104:16 together · 10 games

xG share45.0%
Corsi for / against
87 / 118
Fenwick for / against
71 / 87
Corsi share
42.4%
Fenwick share
44.9%
xG for / against
4.07 / 4.98
All observed combinations

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

123:37 together · 10 games

xG share61.5%
Corsi for / against
154 / 103
Fenwick for / against
114 / 80
Corsi share
59.9%
Fenwick share
58.8%
xG for / against
7.27 / 4.55
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Anthony Stolarz

Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
150
Save %
90.7
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
31.3

Dennis Hildeby

Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 24

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
78
Save %
88.5
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
35.9
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 30, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

xG for / game
3.20
xG against / game
3.44
xG differential / game
-0.24

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Tampa Bay Lightning

xG for / game
3.56
xG against / game
2.79
xG differential / game
0.77

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 30, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.0
Corsi share (%)
46.0
Fenwick share (%)
48.2
Faceoff win %
53.1
Penalties / game
4.2

Shots / game: 29.0 · Shooting: 15.2% · Avg distance: 32.5 ft

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
63.5
Corsi share (%)
55.1
Fenwick share (%)
55.6
Faceoff win %
49.5
Penalties / game
3.7

Shots / game: 31.1 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 32.4 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
16Points15
0.615Points %0.682
50Goals for38
41Goals against34
9Goal differential4
W4Current streakOT1
Road versus home
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR road
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL home
5Games5
3Wins5
7Points10
10Goal differential9
Last 10 games
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
6-2-2Record7-2-1
14Points15
44Goals for37
34Goals against29
10Goal differential8
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Toronto Maple Leafs TOR 6 wins
10 games reviewed
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 4 wins
Total goals36 – 35
Goal differential +1 / -1
Goals per game3.6 / 3.5
Shots per game30.5 / 31.9
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 7, 2026
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
5 - 2 33 - 29 View
Feb 25, 2026
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
2 - 4 34 - 36 View
Dec 8, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
0 - 2 29 - 24 View
Apr 9, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 3 31 - 28 View
Jan 20, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 5 30 - 28 View
Nov 30, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
5 - 3 29 - 41 View
Oct 21, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
2 - 5 34 - 29 View
Apr 17, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 6 38 - 32 View
Apr 3, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
4 - 1 25 - 29 View
Nov 6, 2023
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
5 - 6 31 - 34 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings TOR TBL