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Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for February 20, 2027

NHL matchup

Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for February 20, 2027.

February 20, 2027 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

7-5-2

45.6%
at
Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

7-3-1

54.4% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Tampa Bay Lightning at 54.4%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Toronto Maple Leafs logo
Away team

Toronto Maple Leafs

45.6%
Fair American +119
Fair decimal 2.19
Calculate value
Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Home team

Tampa Bay Lightning

54.4%
Fair American -119
Fair decimal 1.84
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Feb 20, 2027.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 20. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Toronto Maple Leafs

This selection is unavailable until complete validated shift records cover every selected game.

All observed combinations

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

123:37 together · 10 games

xG share61.5%
Corsi for / against
154 / 103
Fenwick for / against
114 / 80
Corsi share
59.9%
Fenwick share
58.8%
xG for / against
7.27 / 4.55
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Sergei Bobrovsky

Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 26

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
142
Save %
88.7
Goals allowed
16
Close-range shots %
25.4

Dennis Hildeby

Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 24

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
78
Save %
88.5
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
35.9
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 20, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

xG for / game
3.03
xG against / game
3.38
xG differential / game
-0.35

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Tampa Bay Lightning

xG for / game
3.56
xG against / game
2.79
xG differential / game
0.77

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 20, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
51.3
Corsi share (%)
44.0
Fenwick share (%)
46.7
Faceoff win %
52.7
Penalties / game
4.9

Shots / game: 28.1 · Shooting: 14.6% · Avg distance: 34.1 ft

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
63.5
Corsi share (%)
55.1
Fenwick share (%)
55.6
Faceoff win %
49.5
Penalties / game
3.7

Shots / game: 31.1 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 32.4 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
16Points15
0.571Points %0.682
52Goals for38
46Goals against34
6Goal differential4
L1Current streakOT1
Road versus home
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR road
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL home
6Games5
3Wins5
7Points10
7Goal differential9
Last 10 games
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
5-3-2Record7-2-1
12Points15
41Goals for37
35Goals against29
6Goal differential8
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Toronto Maple Leafs TOR 6 wins
10 games reviewed
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 4 wins
Total goals36 – 35
Goal differential +1 / -1
Goals per game3.6 / 3.5
Shots per game30.5 / 31.9
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 7, 2026
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
5 - 2 33 - 29 View
Feb 25, 2026
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
2 - 4 34 - 36 View
Dec 8, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
0 - 2 29 - 24 View
Apr 9, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 3 31 - 28 View
Jan 20, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 5 30 - 28 View
Nov 30, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
5 - 3 29 - 41 View
Oct 21, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
2 - 5 34 - 29 View
Apr 17, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 6 38 - 32 View
Apr 3, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
4 - 1 25 - 29 View
Nov 6, 2023
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
5 - 6 31 - 34 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings TOR TBL