Forward trio
114:25 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 118 / 110
- Fenwick for / against
- 87 / 83
- Corsi share
- 51.8%
- Fenwick share
- 51.2%
- xG for / against
- 6.60 / 5.18
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for February 25, 2026
NHL matchup
Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for February 25, 2026.
February 25, 2026
· 6:30 PM CST
Model V2 prediction is not available yet for this game.
View final boxscore
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 25. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Toronto Maple Leafs
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Defense pair
73:09 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 63 / 92
- Fenwick for / against
- 40 / 66
- Corsi share
- 40.6%
- Fenwick share
- 37.7%
- xG for / against
- 2.72 / 3.83
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
116:40 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 107 / 92
- Fenwick for / against
- 82 / 65
- Corsi share
- 53.8%
- Fenwick share
- 55.8%
- xG for / against
- 4.31 / 3.74
Defense pair
151:43 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 165 / 120
- Fenwick for / against
- 128 / 86
- Corsi share
- 57.9%
- Fenwick share
- 59.8%
- xG for / against
- 7.17 / 6.58
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Anthony Stolarz
Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Feb 3
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 117
- Save %
- 84.6
- Goals allowed
- 18
- Close-range shots %
- 34.2
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Feb 5
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 146
- Save %
- 93.2
- Goals allowed
- 10
- Close-range shots %
- 27.4
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 25, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Toronto Maple Leafs
- xG for / game
- 3.36
- xG against / game
- 3.16
- xG differential / game
- 0.21
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Tampa Bay Lightning
- xG for / game
- 3.49
- xG against / game
- 2.69
- xG differential / game
- 0.80
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 25, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Toronto Maple Leafs
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 59.8
- Corsi share (%)
- 48.8
- Fenwick share (%)
- 48.7
- Faceoff win %
- 55.0
- Penalties / game
- 2.1
Shots / game: 29.6 · Shooting: 9.8% · Avg distance: 31.7 ft
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 63.1
- Corsi share (%)
- 55.7
- Fenwick share (%)
- 57.5
- Faceoff win %
- 50.9
- Penalties / game
- 4.9
Shots / game: 31.8 · Shooting: 11.6% · Avg distance: 33.6 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
TOR
|
Metric |
TBL
|
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Points | 15 |
| 0.571 | Points % | 0.682 |
| 52 | Goals for | 38 |
| 46 | Goals against | 34 |
| 6 | Goal differential | 4 |
| L1 | Current streak | OT1 |
Road versus home
|
TOR road
|
Metric |
TBL home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 5 |
| 3 | Wins | 5 |
| 7 | Points | 10 |
| 7 | Goal differential | 9 |
Last 10 games
|
TOR
|
Metric |
TBL
|
|---|---|---|
| 5-3-2 | Record | 7-2-1 |
| 12 | Points | 15 |
| 41 | Goals for | 37 |
| 35 | Goals against | 29 |
| 6 | Goal differential | 8 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
TOR
8 wins
10
games reviewed
TBL
2 wins
Total goals40 – 32
Goal differential
+8
/
-8
Goals per game4.0 / 3.2
Shots per game31.8 / 32.9
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
0 - 2 | 29 - 24 | View |
| Apr 9, 2025 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
4 - 3 | 31 - 28 | View |
| Jan 20, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
3 - 5 | 30 - 28 | View |
| Nov 30, 2024 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
5 - 3 | 29 - 41 | View |
| Oct 21, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
2 - 5 | 34 - 29 | View |
| Apr 17, 2024 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
4 - 6 | 38 - 32 | View |
| Apr 3, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
4 - 1 | 25 - 29 | View |
| Nov 6, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
5 - 6 | 31 - 34 | View |
| Oct 21, 2023 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
4 - 3 | 52 - 31 | View |
| Apr 11, 2023 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
4 - 3 | 24 - 48 | View |