Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for February 25, 2026
Get the playerWON NHL prediction for the Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning matchup on February 25, 2026. playerWON’s machine-learning model currently gives the Tampa Bay Lightning a 61.0% win probability.
🤖 Model favours Tampa Bay Lightning
(61.0%)
Compare market odds, fair odds, and value below.
February 25, 2026
Visitor Model vs Market
Toronto Maple Leafs
39.0%
Fair American: +156
Fair Decimal: 2.56
Calculate Value →
Home Model vs Market
Tampa Bay Lightning
61.0%
Fair American: -156
Fair Decimal: 1.64
Calculate Value →
📊 Season Overview
|
TOR
|
Metric |
TBL
|
|---|---|---|
| 78 | Points | 106 |
| 0.476 | Points % | 0.646 |
| 253 | Goals For | 290 |
| 299 | Goals Against | 231 |
| -46 | Goal Differential | 59 |
| L5 | Current Streak | L1 |
🚍 Road vs 🏠 Home
|
TOR (Road)
|
Metric |
TBL (Home)
|
|---|---|---|
| 41 | Games | 41 |
| 14 | Wins | 26 |
| 34 | Points | 53 |
| -36 | Goal Differential | 22 |
🔥 Last 10 Games
|
TOR
|
Metric |
TBL
|
|---|---|---|
| 2-7-1 | Record | 5-5-0 |
| 5 | Points | 10 |
| 28 | Goals For | 26 |
| 47 | Goals Against | 30 |
| -19 | Goal Differential | -4 |
🥅 Last 10 Head-to-Head Games
|
TOR
|
H2H Summary |
TBL
|
|---|---|---|
| 8-2 | Record | 2-8 |
| 40 | Total Goals | 32 |
| +8 | Goal Differential | -8 |
| 4.0 | Goals / Game | 3.2 |
| 31.8 | Shots / Game | 32.9 |
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
Toronto Maple Leafs
@
|
0 - 2 | 29 - 24 | View |
| Apr 9, 2025 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
@
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
|
4 - 3 | 31 - 28 | View |
| Jan 20, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
Toronto Maple Leafs
@
|
3 - 5 | 30 - 28 | View |
| Nov 30, 2024 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
@
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
|
5 - 3 | 29 - 41 | View |
| Oct 21, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
Toronto Maple Leafs
@
|
2 - 5 | 34 - 29 | View |
| Apr 17, 2024 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
@
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
|
4 - 6 | 38 - 32 | View |
| Apr 3, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
Toronto Maple Leafs
@
|
4 - 1 | 25 - 29 | View |
| Nov 6, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
Toronto Maple Leafs
@
|
5 - 6 | 31 - 34 | View |
| Oct 21, 2023 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
@
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
|
4 - 3 | 52 - 31 | View |
| Apr 11, 2023 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
@
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
|
4 - 3 | 24 - 48 | View |
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s machine-learning model, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.