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Toronto Maple Leafs vs New Jersey Devils prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 17, 2026

NHL matchup

Toronto Maple Leafs at New Jersey Devils

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 17, 2026.

December 17, 2026 · 6:30 PM CST
Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

7-4-2

46.8%
at
Home

New Jersey Devils

7-4-0

53.2% Model pick
Model V2 pick: New Jersey Devils at 53.2%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Toronto Maple Leafs logo
Away team

Toronto Maple Leafs

46.8%
Fair American +114
Fair decimal 2.14
Calculate value
New Jersey Devils logo
Home team

New Jersey Devils

53.2%
Fair American -114
Fair decimal 1.88
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 17, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 17. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

104:16 together · 10 games

xG share45.0%
Corsi for / against
87 / 118
Fenwick for / against
71 / 87
Corsi share
42.4%
Fenwick share
44.9%
xG for / against
4.07 / 4.98
All observed combinations

New Jersey Devils

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

74:30 together · 8 games

xG share72.8%
Corsi for / against
102 / 54
Fenwick for / against
67 / 37
Corsi share
65.4%
Fenwick share
64.4%
xG for / against
5.68 / 2.12
Defense pair

159:23 together · 10 games

xG share59.0%
Corsi for / against
196 / 128
Fenwick for / against
127 / 85
Corsi share
60.5%
Fenwick share
59.9%
xG for / against
7.59 / 5.27
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Anthony Stolarz

Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
150
Save %
90.7
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
31.3

Jake Allen

New Jersey Devils · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
120
Save %
89.2
Goals allowed
13
Close-range shots %
26.7
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 17, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

xG for / game
3.20
xG against / game
3.44
xG differential / game
-0.24

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

New Jersey Devils

xG for / game
3.50
xG against / game
2.42
xG differential / game
1.08

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 17, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.0
Corsi share (%)
46.0
Fenwick share (%)
48.2
Faceoff win %
53.1
Penalties / game
4.2

Shots / game: 29.0 · Shooting: 15.2% · Avg distance: 32.5 ft

New Jersey Devils

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
68.8
Corsi share (%)
58.0
Fenwick share (%)
57.7
Faceoff win %
51.3
Penalties / game
2.7

Shots / game: 33.1 · Shooting: 10.0% · Avg distance: 30.3 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
New Jersey Devils NJD
16Points14
0.615Points %0.636
50Goals for36
41Goals against32
9Goal differential4
W4Current streakW3
Road versus home
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR road
Metric
New Jersey Devils NJD home
5Games8
3Wins6
7Points12
10Goal differential11
Last 10 games
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
New Jersey Devils NJD
6-2-2Record6-4-0
14Points12
44Goals for33
34Goals against30
10Goal differential3
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Toronto Maple Leafs TOR 6 wins
10 games reviewed
New Jersey Devils NJD 4 wins
Total goals36 – 32
Goal differential +4 / -4
Goals per game3.6 / 3.2
Shots per game30.3 / 29.9
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 4, 2026
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at New Jersey Devils New Jersey Devils
3 - 4 27 - 47 View
Dec 30, 2025
New Jersey Devils New Jersey Devils at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
0 - 4 33 - 30 View
Oct 21, 2025
New Jersey Devils New Jersey Devils at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
5 - 2 35 - 25 View
Jan 16, 2025
New Jersey Devils New Jersey Devils at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 4 24 - 41 View
Dec 10, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at New Jersey Devils New Jersey Devils
2 - 1 17 - 39 View
Oct 10, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at New Jersey Devils New Jersey Devils
4 - 2 22 - 23 View
Apr 11, 2024
New Jersey Devils New Jersey Devils at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
6 - 5 20 - 32 View
Apr 9, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at New Jersey Devils New Jersey Devils
5 - 2 39 - 20 View
Mar 26, 2024
New Jersey Devils New Jersey Devils at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
6 - 3 25 - 45 View
Mar 7, 2023
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at New Jersey Devils New Jersey Devils
4 - 3 25 - 33 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings TOR NJD