Forward trio
116:55 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 127 / 116
- Fenwick for / against
- 90 / 85
- Corsi share
- 52.3%
- Fenwick share
- 51.4%
- xG for / against
- 6.54 / 5.56
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Edmonton Oilers prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for February 3, 2026
NHL matchup
Toronto Maple Leafs at Edmonton Oilers
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for February 3, 2026.
February 3, 2026
· 7:30 PM CST
Model V2 prediction is not available yet for this game.
View final boxscore
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 3. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Toronto Maple Leafs
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Defense pair
74:40 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 69 / 70
- Fenwick for / against
- 48 / 50
- Corsi share
- 49.6%
- Fenwick share
- 49.0%
- xG for / against
- 3.66 / 2.36
Edmonton Oilers
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
71:51 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 71 / 77
- Fenwick for / against
- 58 / 54
- Corsi share
- 48.0%
- Fenwick share
- 51.8%
- xG for / against
- 4.59 / 3.85
Defense pair
155:05 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 170 / 131
- Fenwick for / against
- 134 / 96
- Corsi share
- 56.5%
- Fenwick share
- 58.3%
- xG for / against
- 11.22 / 6.18
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Joseph Woll
Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Feb 2
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 167
- Save %
- 91.0
- Goals allowed
- 15
- Close-range shots %
- 24.0
Tristan Jarry
Edmonton Oilers · Last start: Jan 31
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 116
- Save %
- 83.6
- Goals allowed
- 19
- Close-range shots %
- 36.2
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 3, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Toronto Maple Leafs
- xG for / game
- 3.33
- xG against / game
- 3.15
- xG differential / game
- 0.18
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Edmonton Oilers
- xG for / game
- 4.30
- xG against / game
- 3.02
- xG differential / game
- 1.28
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 3, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Toronto Maple Leafs
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 60.6
- Corsi share (%)
- 49.3
- Fenwick share (%)
- 48.8
- Faceoff win %
- 56.0
- Penalties / game
- 2.1
Shots / game: 29.7 · Shooting: 9.8% · Avg distance: 32.1 ft
Edmonton Oilers
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 63.6
- Corsi share (%)
- 53.5
- Fenwick share (%)
- 54.6
- Faceoff win %
- 52.0
- Penalties / game
- 3.0
Shots / game: 33.0 · Shooting: 11.2% · Avg distance: 30.1 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
TOR
|
Metric |
EDM
|
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Points | 17 |
| 0.615 | Points % | 0.773 |
| 50 | Goals for | 49 |
| 41 | Goals against | 39 |
| 9 | Goal differential | 10 |
| W4 | Current streak | L1 |
Road versus home
|
TOR road
|
Metric |
EDM home
|
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Games | 6 |
| 3 | Wins | 3 |
| 7 | Points | 7 |
| 10 | Goal differential | -4 |
Last 10 games
|
TOR
|
Metric |
EDM
|
|---|---|---|
| 6-2-2 | Record | 8-2-0 |
| 14 | Points | 16 |
| 44 | Goals for | 44 |
| 34 | Goals against | 33 |
| 10 | Goal differential | 11 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
TOR
6 wins
10
games reviewed
EDM
4 wins
Total goals39 – 34
Goal differential
+5
/
-5
Goals per game3.9 / 3.4
Shots per game28.9 / 33.3
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 |
Edmonton Oilers
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
6 - 3 | 37 - 28 | View |
| Feb 1, 2025 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Edmonton Oilers
|
4 - 3 | 28 - 48 | View |
| Nov 16, 2024 |
Edmonton Oilers
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
3 - 4 | 30 - 22 | View |
| Mar 23, 2024 |
Edmonton Oilers
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
3 - 6 | 39 - 29 | View |
| Jan 16, 2024 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Edmonton Oilers
|
2 - 4 | 27 - 32 | View |
| Mar 11, 2023 |
Edmonton Oilers
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
4 - 7 | 26 - 38 | View |
| Mar 1, 2023 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Edmonton Oilers
|
2 - 5 | 28 - 32 | View |
| Jan 5, 2022 |
Edmonton Oilers
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
2 - 4 | 30 - 33 | View |
| Dec 14, 2021 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Edmonton Oilers
|
5 - 1 | 25 - 36 | View |
| Mar 29, 2021 |
Edmonton Oilers
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
3 - 2 | 23 - 31 | View |