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Toronto Maple Leafs vs Columbus Blue Jackets prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 20, 2026

NHL matchup

Toronto Maple Leafs at Columbus Blue Jackets

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 20, 2026.

October 20, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

7-4-2

6 Model pick
Final
Home

Columbus Blue Jackets

4-5-0

2
Model V2 pick: Toronto Maple Leafs at 53.3% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Toronto Maple Leafs logo
Away team

Toronto Maple Leafs

53.3%
Fair American -114
Fair decimal 1.88
Best market +136 · DraftKings
Market implied 42.4%
Edge +10.9%
Expected value +25.8%
Calculate value
Columbus Blue Jackets logo
Home team

Columbus Blue Jackets

46.7%
Fair American +114
Fair decimal 2.14
Best market -150 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 60.0%
Edge -13.3%
Expected value -22.2%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 20, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 20. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

77:28 together · 10 games

xG share58.7%
Corsi for / against
83 / 51
Fenwick for / against
62 / 40
Corsi share
61.9%
Fenwick share
60.8%
xG for / against
4.07 / 2.87
All observed combinations

Columbus Blue Jackets

7 / 7 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

77:00 together · 7 games

xG share48.9%
Corsi for / against
68 / 62
Fenwick for / against
42 / 44
Corsi share
52.3%
Fenwick share
48.8%
xG for / against
2.29 / 2.39
Defense pair

86:09 together · 5 games

xG share43.8%
Corsi for / against
82 / 91
Fenwick for / against
60 / 69
Corsi share
47.4%
Fenwick share
46.5%
xG for / against
4.24 / 5.45
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Anthony Stolarz 50.4%
Other eligible goalies

Why Anthony Stolarz?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Team played yesterday
+1.466
Days since last start
+0.468
Started last game
+0.436
Goalie win pct before
+0.399
Goalie team start share
-0.268
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 20, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Columbus Blue Jackets

Jet Greaves 64.7%
Other eligible goalies

Why Jet Greaves?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Prev save pct
+0.529
Goalie team start share
+0.478
Won previous appearance
+0.387
Started last game
+0.306
Days since last start
+0.264
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 20, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Sergei Bobrovsky

Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 19

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
161
Save %
90.7
Goals allowed
15
Close-range shots %
33.5

Cam Talbot

Columbus Blue Jackets · Last start: Oct 18

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
80
Save %
87.5
Goals allowed
10
Close-range shots %
41.2
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 20, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

xG for / game
3.12
xG against / game
3.55
xG differential / game
-0.44

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Columbus Blue Jackets

xG for / game
2.90
xG against / game
3.49
xG differential / game
-0.60

7 / 7 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 20, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.3
Corsi share (%)
46.6
Fenwick share (%)
48.2
Faceoff win %
52.1
Penalties / game
4.0

Shots / game: 28.4 · Shooting: 11.3% · Avg distance: 31.2 ft

Columbus Blue Jackets

7 / 7 games covered

Attempts / game
53.7
Corsi share (%)
46.5
Fenwick share (%)
47.3
Faceoff win %
55.7
Penalties / game
4.14

Shots / game: 26.1 · Shooting: 9.3% · Avg distance: 33.1 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Columbus Blue Jackets CBJ
16Points8
0.615Points %0.444
50Goals for22
41Goals against30
9Goal differential-8
W4Current streakW1
Road versus home
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR road
Metric
Columbus Blue Jackets CBJ home
5Games7
3Wins4
7Points8
10Goal differential-5
Last 10 games
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Columbus Blue Jackets CBJ
6-2-2Record4-5-0
14Points8
44Goals for22
34Goals against30
10Goal differential-8
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Toronto Maple Leafs TOR 4 wins
10 games reviewed
Columbus Blue Jackets CBJ 6 wins
Total goals33 – 36
Goal differential -3 / +3
Goals per game3.3 / 3.6
Shots per game33.4 / 28.4
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Nov 26, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Columbus Blue Jackets Columbus Blue Jackets
2 - 1 24 - 36 View
Nov 20, 2025
Columbus Blue Jackets Columbus Blue Jackets at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 2 30 - 29 View
Oct 29, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Columbus Blue Jackets Columbus Blue Jackets
3 - 6 36 - 24 View
Apr 5, 2025
Columbus Blue Jackets Columbus Blue Jackets at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
0 - 5 27 - 27 View
Jan 22, 2025
Columbus Blue Jackets Columbus Blue Jackets at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
5 - 1 19 - 29 View
Oct 22, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Columbus Blue Jackets Columbus Blue Jackets
2 - 6 28 - 38 View
Dec 29, 2023
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Columbus Blue Jackets Columbus Blue Jackets
5 - 6 33 - 21 View
Dec 23, 2023
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Columbus Blue Jackets Columbus Blue Jackets
4 - 1 30 - 28 View
Dec 14, 2023
Columbus Blue Jackets Columbus Blue Jackets at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
6 - 5 35 - 48 View
Apr 4, 2023
Columbus Blue Jackets Columbus Blue Jackets at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
2 - 4 26 - 50 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings TOR CBJ