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Toronto Maple Leafs vs Calgary Flames prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 26, 2026

NHL matchup

Toronto Maple Leafs at Calgary Flames

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 26, 2026.

October 26, 2026 · 7:30 PM CST
Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

7-4-2

54.9% Model pick
at
Home

Calgary Flames

4-6-0

45.1%
Model V2 pick: Toronto Maple Leafs at 54.9%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Toronto Maple Leafs logo
Away team

Toronto Maple Leafs

54.9%
Fair American -122
Fair decimal 1.82
Best market -148 · BetRivers
Market implied 59.7%
Edge -4.8%
Expected value -8.0%
Calculate value
Calgary Flames logo
Home team

Calgary Flames

45.1%
Fair American +122
Fair decimal 2.22
Best market +133 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 42.9%
Edge +2.2%
Expected value +5.1%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 26, 2026.

Calgary Flames

All Model Picks

Bets
3
Record
1-2
Net units
-0.25
ROI
-8.3%

Value Picks

Bets
10
Record
4-6
Net units
0.40
ROI
4.0%

Market Favourite

Bets
1
Record
0-1
Net units
-1.00
ROI
-100.0%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 26. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

104:16 together · 10 games

xG share45.0%
Corsi for / against
87 / 118
Fenwick for / against
71 / 87
Corsi share
42.4%
Fenwick share
44.9%
xG for / against
4.07 / 4.98
All observed combinations

Calgary Flames

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

53:06 together · 7 games

xG share54.9%
Corsi for / against
58 / 49
Fenwick for / against
42 / 35
Corsi share
54.2%
Fenwick share
54.5%
xG for / against
2.28 / 1.88
Defense pair

112:12 together · 10 games

xG share54.1%
Corsi for / against
125 / 98
Fenwick for / against
91 / 73
Corsi share
56.1%
Fenwick share
55.5%
xG for / against
5.70 / 4.83
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Sergei Bobrovsky 72.9%
Other eligible goalies

Why Sergei Bobrovsky?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Prev save pct
-0.464
Goalie team start share
+0.456
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.439
Won previous appearance
+0.317
Team win pct before
-0.250
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 26, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Calgary Flames

Devin Cooley 64.7%
Other eligible goalies

Why Devin Cooley?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Started last game
-0.367
Won previous appearance
+0.337
Prev save pct
+0.302
Team win pct before
+0.297
Goalie team start share
+0.108
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 26, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Anthony Stolarz

Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
150
Save %
90.7
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
31.3

Devin Cooley

Calgary Flames · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
159
Save %
91.2
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
26.4
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 26, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

xG for / game
3.20
xG against / game
3.44
xG differential / game
-0.24

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Calgary Flames

xG for / game
2.61
xG against / game
3.37
xG differential / game
-0.76

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 26, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.0
Corsi share (%)
46.0
Fenwick share (%)
48.2
Faceoff win %
53.1
Penalties / game
4.2

Shots / game: 29.0 · Shooting: 15.2% · Avg distance: 32.5 ft

Calgary Flames

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
61.2
Corsi share (%)
49.4
Fenwick share (%)
47.9
Faceoff win %
49.5
Penalties / game
4.6

Shots / game: 28.7 · Shooting: 8.0% · Avg distance: 33.9 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Calgary Flames CGY
16Points8
0.615Points %0.400
50Goals for23
41Goals against39
9Goal differential-16
W4Current streakW3
Road versus home
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR road
Metric
Calgary Flames CGY home
5Games6
3Wins3
7Points6
10Goal differential-6
Last 10 games
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Calgary Flames CGY
6-2-2Record4-6-0
14Points8
44Goals for23
34Goals against39
10Goal differential-16
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Toronto Maple Leafs TOR 9 wins
10 games reviewed
Calgary Flames CGY 1 wins
Total goals40 – 28
Goal differential +12 / -12
Goals per game4.0 / 2.8
Shots per game33.9 / 27.4
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Feb 2, 2026
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
4 - 2 22 - 30 View
Oct 28, 2025
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 4 29 - 37 View
Mar 17, 2025
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
2 - 6 26 - 29 View
Feb 4, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
6 - 3 30 - 26 View
Jan 18, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
4 - 3 32 - 26 View
Nov 10, 2023
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
4 - 5 28 - 36 View
Mar 2, 2023
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
2 - 1 34 - 26 View
Dec 10, 2022
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
4 - 5 26 - 34 View
Feb 10, 2022
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
2 - 5 48 - 26 View
Nov 12, 2021
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
1 - 2 31 - 37 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
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