Forward trio
111:59 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 124 / 103
- Fenwick for / against
- 88 / 80
- Corsi share
- 54.6%
- Fenwick share
- 52.4%
- xG for / against
- 6.86 / 5.20
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Calgary Flames prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for February 2, 2026
NHL matchup
Toronto Maple Leafs at Calgary Flames
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for February 2, 2026.
February 2, 2026
· 9:00 PM CST
Model V2 prediction is not available yet for this game.
View final boxscore
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 2. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Toronto Maple Leafs
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Defense pair
84:59 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 78 / 82
- Fenwick for / against
- 54 / 60
- Corsi share
- 48.8%
- Fenwick share
- 47.4%
- xG for / against
- 3.90 / 3.43
Calgary Flames
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
93:43 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 98 / 88
- Fenwick for / against
- 65 / 66
- Corsi share
- 52.7%
- Fenwick share
- 49.6%
- xG for / against
- 3.12 / 4.07
Defense pair
145:34 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 137 / 162
- Fenwick for / against
- 87 / 101
- Corsi share
- 45.8%
- Fenwick share
- 46.3%
- xG for / against
- 3.73 / 5.89
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Joseph Woll
Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Jan 31
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 166
- Save %
- 89.2
- Goals allowed
- 18
- Close-range shots %
- 26.5
Dustin Wolf
Calgary Flames · Last start: Jan 31
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 143
- Save %
- 88.8
- Goals allowed
- 16
- Close-range shots %
- 27.3
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 2, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Toronto Maple Leafs
- xG for / game
- 3.33
- xG against / game
- 3.47
- xG differential / game
- -0.15
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Calgary Flames
- xG for / game
- 2.76
- xG against / game
- 3.31
- xG differential / game
- -0.55
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 2, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Toronto Maple Leafs
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 60.6
- Corsi share (%)
- 48.5
- Fenwick share (%)
- 47.5
- Faceoff win %
- 54.2
- Penalties / game
- 2.2
Shots / game: 29.5 · Shooting: 8.8% · Avg distance: 32.5 ft
Calgary Flames
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 60.4
- Corsi share (%)
- 49.8
- Fenwick share (%)
- 48.3
- Faceoff win %
- 47.7
- Penalties / game
- 3.8
Shots / game: 27.3 · Shooting: 8.1% · Avg distance: 34.3 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
TOR
|
Metric |
CGY
|
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Points | 8 |
| 0.615 | Points % | 0.400 |
| 50 | Goals for | 23 |
| 41 | Goals against | 39 |
| 9 | Goal differential | -16 |
| W4 | Current streak | W3 |
Road versus home
|
TOR road
|
Metric |
CGY home
|
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Games | 6 |
| 3 | Wins | 3 |
| 7 | Points | 6 |
| 10 | Goal differential | -6 |
Last 10 games
|
TOR
|
Metric |
CGY
|
|---|---|---|
| 6-2-2 | Record | 4-6-0 |
| 14 | Points | 8 |
| 44 | Goals for | 23 |
| 34 | Goals against | 39 |
| 10 | Goal differential | -16 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
TOR
8 wins
10
games reviewed
CGY
2 wins
Total goals38 – 29
Goal differential
+9
/
-9
Goals per game3.8 / 2.9
Shots per game34.3 / 27.2
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2025 |
Calgary Flames
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
3 - 4 | 29 - 37 | View |
| Mar 17, 2025 |
Calgary Flames
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
2 - 6 | 26 - 29 | View |
| Feb 4, 2025 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Calgary Flames
|
6 - 3 | 30 - 26 | View |
| Jan 18, 2024 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Calgary Flames
|
4 - 3 | 32 - 26 | View |
| Nov 10, 2023 |
Calgary Flames
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
4 - 5 | 28 - 36 | View |
| Mar 2, 2023 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Calgary Flames
|
2 - 1 | 34 - 26 | View |
| Dec 10, 2022 |
Calgary Flames
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
4 - 5 | 26 - 34 | View |
| Feb 10, 2022 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Calgary Flames
|
2 - 5 | 48 - 26 | View |
| Nov 12, 2021 |
Calgary Flames
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
1 - 2 | 31 - 37 | View |
| Apr 13, 2021 |
Calgary Flames
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
3 - 2 | 28 - 26 | View |