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Toronto Maple Leafs vs Anaheim Ducks prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 29, 2026

NHL matchup

Toronto Maple Leafs at Anaheim Ducks

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 29, 2026.

December 29, 2026 · 9:00 PM CST
Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

7-4-2

59.3% Model pick
at
Home

Anaheim Ducks

5-6-0

40.7%
Model V2 pick: Toronto Maple Leafs at 59.3%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Toronto Maple Leafs logo
Away team

Toronto Maple Leafs

59.3%
Fair American -146
Fair decimal 1.69
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 29, 2026.

Anaheim Ducks

All Model Picks

Bets
6
Record
4-2
Net units
2.13
ROI
35.5%

Value Picks

Bets
5
Record
4-1
Net units
3.94
ROI
78.8%

Market Favourite

Bets
2
Record
1-1
Net units
-0.15
ROI
-7.6%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 29. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

104:16 together · 10 games

xG share45.0%
Corsi for / against
87 / 118
Fenwick for / against
71 / 87
Corsi share
42.4%
Fenwick share
44.9%
xG for / against
4.07 / 4.98
All observed combinations

Anaheim Ducks

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

40:52 together · 6 games

xG share59.0%
Corsi for / against
38 / 38
Fenwick for / against
25 / 24
Corsi share
50.0%
Fenwick share
51.0%
xG for / against
2.17 / 1.50
Defense pair

86:16 together · 10 games

xG share36.5%
Corsi for / against
77 / 88
Fenwick for / against
54 / 64
Corsi share
46.7%
Fenwick share
45.8%
xG for / against
3.41 / 5.93
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Anthony Stolarz

Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
150
Save %
90.7
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
31.3

Lukas Dostal

Anaheim Ducks · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
131
Save %
88.5
Goals allowed
15
Close-range shots %
32.1
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 29, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

xG for / game
3.20
xG against / game
3.44
xG differential / game
-0.24

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Anaheim Ducks

xG for / game
2.91
xG against / game
3.60
xG differential / game
-0.70

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 29, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.0
Corsi share (%)
46.0
Fenwick share (%)
48.2
Faceoff win %
53.1
Penalties / game
4.2

Shots / game: 29.0 · Shooting: 15.2% · Avg distance: 32.5 ft

Anaheim Ducks

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
56.4
Corsi share (%)
48.6
Fenwick share (%)
48.7
Faceoff win %
44.7
Penalties / game
4.6

Shots / game: 23.9 · Shooting: 11.7% · Avg distance: 32.3 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Anaheim Ducks ANA
16Points10
0.615Points %0.455
50Goals for32
41Goals against37
9Goal differential-5
W4Current streakW1
Road versus home
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR road
Metric
Anaheim Ducks ANA home
5Games4
3Wins1
7Points2
10Goal differential-6
Last 10 games
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Anaheim Ducks ANA
6-2-2Record4-6-0
14Points8
44Goals for28
34Goals against34
10Goal differential-6
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Toronto Maple Leafs TOR 9 wins
10 games reviewed
Anaheim Ducks ANA 1 wins
Total goals47 – 23
Goal differential +24 / -24
Goals per game4.7 / 2.3
Shots per game35.5 / 30.7
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 30, 2026
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks
5 - 4 29 - 32 View
Mar 12, 2026
Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
4 - 6 40 - 28 View
Mar 30, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks
3 - 2 23 - 31 View
Dec 12, 2024
Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
2 - 3 28 - 33 View
Feb 17, 2024
Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
2 - 9 21 - 32 View
Jan 3, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks
2 - 1 57 - 28 View
Dec 13, 2022
Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
0 - 7 28 - 42 View
Oct 30, 2022
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks
3 - 4 36 - 39 View
Jan 26, 2022
Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 4 20 - 44 View
Nov 28, 2021
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks
5 - 1 31 - 40 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings TOR ANA