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Tampa Bay Lightning vs Winnipeg Jets prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 8, 2026

NHL matchup

Tampa Bay Lightning at Winnipeg Jets

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for November 8, 2026.

November 8, 2026 · 5:00 PM CST
Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

7-3-1

53.1% Model pick
at
Home

Winnipeg Jets

4-4-3

46.9%
Model V2 pick: Tampa Bay Lightning at 53.1%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Away team

Tampa Bay Lightning

53.1%
Fair American -113
Fair decimal 1.88
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 8, 2026.

Winnipeg Jets

All Model Picks

Bets
4
Record
1-3
Net units
-2.07
ROI
-51.9%

Value Picks

Bets
6
Record
2-4
Net units
-0.82
ROI
-13.7%

Market Favourite

Bets
4
Record
1-3
Net units
-2.07
ROI
-51.9%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 8. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

123:37 together · 10 games

xG share61.5%
Corsi for / against
154 / 103
Fenwick for / against
114 / 80
Corsi share
59.9%
Fenwick share
58.8%
xG for / against
7.27 / 4.55
All observed combinations

Winnipeg Jets

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

135:56 together · 10 games

xG share50.6%
Corsi for / against
159 / 130
Fenwick for / against
120 / 104
Corsi share
55.0%
Fenwick share
53.6%
xG for / against
7.78 / 7.59
Defense pair

121:50 together · 10 games

xG share47.1%
Corsi for / against
114 / 112
Fenwick for / against
83 / 81
Corsi share
50.4%
Fenwick share
50.6%
xG for / against
4.74 / 5.31
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Dennis Hildeby

Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 24

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
78
Save %
88.5
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
35.9

Stuart Skinner

Winnipeg Jets · Last start: Oct 25

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
136
Save %
90.4
Goals allowed
13
Close-range shots %
38.2
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 8, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Tampa Bay Lightning

xG for / game
3.56
xG against / game
2.79
xG differential / game
0.77

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Winnipeg Jets

xG for / game
2.87
xG against / game
3.38
xG differential / game
-0.51

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 8, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
63.5
Corsi share (%)
55.1
Fenwick share (%)
55.6
Faceoff win %
49.5
Penalties / game
3.7

Shots / game: 31.1 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 32.4 ft

Winnipeg Jets

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
56.6
Corsi share (%)
48.6
Fenwick share (%)
47.4
Faceoff win %
45.1
Penalties / game
2.9

Shots / game: 26.6 · Shooting: 9.0% · Avg distance: 32.0 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Winnipeg Jets WPG
15Points11
0.682Points %0.500
38Goals for27
34Goals against31
4Goal differential-4
OT1Current streakL1
Road versus home
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL road
Metric
Winnipeg Jets WPG home
6Games6
2Wins2
5Points5
-5Goal differential-3
Last 10 games
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Winnipeg Jets WPG
7-2-1Record4-4-2
15Points10
37Goals for24
29Goals against27
8Goal differential-3
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 3 wins
10 games reviewed
Winnipeg Jets WPG 7 wins
Total goals32 – 38
Goal differential -6 / +6
Goals per game3.2 / 3.8
Shots per game31.4 / 26.4
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 5, 2026
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets
1 - 4 27 - 30 View
Jan 29, 2026
Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 4 23 - 37 View
Nov 14, 2024
Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 4 24 - 29 View
Nov 3, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets
4 - 7 30 - 34 View
Jan 2, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets
2 - 4 34 - 28 View
Nov 22, 2023
Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 2 32 - 33 View
Mar 12, 2023
Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 2 22 - 35 View
Jan 6, 2023
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets
2 - 4 28 - 20 View
Apr 16, 2022
Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 7 18 - 37 View
Mar 8, 2022
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets
4 - 7 24 - 33 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
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