Forward trio
110:22 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 84 / 96
- Fenwick for / against
- 63 / 71
- Corsi share
- 46.7%
- Fenwick share
- 47.0%
- xG for / against
- 3.78 / 4.35
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Winnipeg Jets prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 5, 2026
NHL matchup
Tampa Bay Lightning at Winnipeg Jets
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 5, 2026.
March 5, 2026
· 7:00 PM CST
Model V2 prediction is not available yet for this game.
View final boxscore
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 5. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Defense pair
140:50 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 136 / 105
- Fenwick for / against
- 102 / 84
- Corsi share
- 56.4%
- Fenwick share
- 54.8%
- xG for / against
- 5.90 / 5.40
Winnipeg Jets
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
79:08 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 73 / 62
- Fenwick for / against
- 62 / 42
- Corsi share
- 54.1%
- Fenwick share
- 59.6%
- xG for / against
- 4.31 / 3.90
Defense pair
125:06 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 112 / 94
- Fenwick for / against
- 83 / 73
- Corsi share
- 54.4%
- Fenwick share
- 53.2%
- xG for / against
- 4.42 / 4.20
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Mar 3
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 129
- Save %
- 88.4
- Goals allowed
- 15
- Close-range shots %
- 31.8
Connor Hellebuyck
Winnipeg Jets · Last start: Mar 3
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 146
- Save %
- 88.4
- Goals allowed
- 17
- Close-range shots %
- 42.5
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 5, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Tampa Bay Lightning
- xG for / game
- 3.49
- xG against / game
- 3.22
- xG differential / game
- 0.28
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Winnipeg Jets
- xG for / game
- 3.08
- xG against / game
- 3.29
- xG differential / game
- -0.21
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 5, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 61.4
- Corsi share (%)
- 52.3
- Fenwick share (%)
- 52.7
- Faceoff win %
- 51.7
- Penalties / game
- 5.9
Shots / game: 33.2 · Shooting: 11.1% · Avg distance: 34.0 ft
Winnipeg Jets
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 56.2
- Corsi share (%)
- 49.3
- Fenwick share (%)
- 48.7
- Faceoff win %
- 48.6
- Penalties / game
- 2.5
Shots / game: 28.3 · Shooting: 8.1% · Avg distance: 32.6 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
TBL
|
Metric |
WPG
|
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Points | 11 |
| 0.682 | Points % | 0.458 |
| 38 | Goals for | 28 |
| 34 | Goals against | 36 |
| 4 | Goal differential | -8 |
| OT1 | Current streak | L2 |
Road versus home
|
TBL road
|
Metric |
WPG home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 7 |
| 2 | Wins | 2 |
| 5 | Points | 5 |
| -5 | Goal differential | -7 |
Last 10 games
|
TBL
|
Metric |
WPG
|
|---|---|---|
| 7-2-1 | Record | 3-5-2 |
| 15 | Points | 8 |
| 37 | Goals for | 22 |
| 29 | Goals against | 30 |
| 8 | Goal differential | -8 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
TBL
4 wins
10
games reviewed
WPG
6 wins
Total goals38 – 35
Goal differential
+3
/
-3
Goals per game3.8 / 3.5
Shots per game31.3 / 26.5
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 |
Winnipeg Jets
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
1 - 4 | 23 - 37 | View |
| Nov 14, 2024 |
Winnipeg Jets
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
1 - 4 | 24 - 29 | View |
| Nov 3, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Winnipeg Jets
|
4 - 7 | 30 - 34 | View |
| Jan 2, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Winnipeg Jets
|
2 - 4 | 34 - 28 | View |
| Nov 22, 2023 |
Winnipeg Jets
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
3 - 2 | 32 - 33 | View |
| Mar 12, 2023 |
Winnipeg Jets
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
3 - 2 | 22 - 35 | View |
| Jan 6, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Winnipeg Jets
|
2 - 4 | 28 - 20 | View |
| Apr 16, 2022 |
Winnipeg Jets
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
4 - 7 | 18 - 37 | View |
| Mar 8, 2022 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Winnipeg Jets
|
4 - 7 | 24 - 33 | View |
| Jan 17, 2020 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Winnipeg Jets
|
7 - 1 | 26 - 31 | View |