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Tampa Bay Lightning vs Washington Capitals prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 15, 2027

NHL matchup

Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 15, 2027.

March 15, 2027 · 2:00 PM CST
Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

7-3-1

48.9%
at
Home

Washington Capitals

6-4-0

51.1% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Washington Capitals at 51.1%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Away team

Tampa Bay Lightning

48.9%
Fair American +104
Fair decimal 2.04
Calculate value
Washington Capitals logo
Home team

Washington Capitals

51.1%
Fair American -104
Fair decimal 1.96
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Mar 15, 2027.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 15. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

123:37 together · 10 games

xG share61.5%
Corsi for / against
154 / 103
Fenwick for / against
114 / 80
Corsi share
59.9%
Fenwick share
58.8%
xG for / against
7.27 / 4.55
All observed combinations

Washington Capitals

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

41:39 together · 6 games

xG share62.6%
Corsi for / against
41 / 38
Fenwick for / against
32 / 27
Corsi share
51.9%
Fenwick share
54.2%
xG for / against
2.56 / 1.53
Defense pair

87:35 together · 10 games

xG share48.6%
Corsi for / against
78 / 105
Fenwick for / against
61 / 80
Corsi share
42.6%
Fenwick share
43.3%
xG for / against
4.29 / 4.54
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Dennis Hildeby

Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 24

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
78
Save %
88.5
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
35.9

Charlie Lindgren

Washington Capitals · Last start: Oct 24

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
79
Save %
88.6
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
25.3
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 15, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Tampa Bay Lightning

xG for / game
3.56
xG against / game
2.79
xG differential / game
0.77

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Washington Capitals

xG for / game
3.53
xG against / game
3.37
xG differential / game
0.16

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 15, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
63.5
Corsi share (%)
55.1
Fenwick share (%)
55.6
Faceoff win %
49.5
Penalties / game
3.7

Shots / game: 31.1 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 32.4 ft

Washington Capitals

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.8
Corsi share (%)
46.4
Fenwick share (%)
47.8
Faceoff win %
50.2
Penalties / game
4.4

Shots / game: 27.5 · Shooting: 12.4% · Avg distance: 31.5 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Washington Capitals WSH
15Points12
0.682Points %0.600
38Goals for34
34Goals against32
4Goal differential2
OT1Current streakW1
Road versus home
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL road
Metric
Washington Capitals WSH home
6Games7
2Wins5
5Points10
-5Goal differential3
Last 10 games
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Washington Capitals WSH
7-2-1Record6-4-0
15Points12
37Goals for34
29Goals against32
8Goal differential2
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 6 wins
10 games reviewed
Washington Capitals WSH 4 wins
Total goals30 – 25
Goal differential +5 / -5
Goals per game3.0 / 2.5
Shots per game23.9 / 28.8
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Oct 3, 2026
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 3 21 - 30 View
Nov 22, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
5 - 3 16 - 32 View
Nov 8, 2025
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
2 - 3 30 - 20 View
Oct 14, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
2 - 3 19 - 28 View
Mar 1, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
3 - 1 19 - 21 View
Nov 27, 2024
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
5 - 4 32 - 28 View
Oct 26, 2024
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
0 - 3 32 - 21 View
Apr 13, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
2 - 4 34 - 34 View
Feb 22, 2024
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
5 - 3 24 - 32 View
Dec 23, 2023
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
2 - 1 20 - 34 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
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