Away team
Tampa Bay Lightning
64.2%
Fair American
-179
Fair decimal
1.56
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 17, 2027
NHL matchup
Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs
View the PlayerWON model prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 17, 2027.
March 17, 2027
· 6:30 PM CST
Model favourite
Tampa Bay Lightning
at 64.2%
Prediction
Model versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Toronto Maple Leafs
35.8%
Fair American
+179
Fair decimal
2.79
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
TBL
|
Metric |
TOR
|
|---|---|---|
| 106 | Points | 78 |
| 0.646 | Points % | 0.476 |
| 290 | Goals for | 253 |
| 231 | Goals against | 299 |
| 59 | Goal differential | -46 |
| L1 | Current streak | L5 |
Road versus home
|
TBL road
|
Metric |
TOR home
|
|---|---|---|
| 41 | Games | 41 |
| 24 | Wins | 18 |
| 53 | Points | 44 |
| 37 | Goal differential | -10 |
Last 10 games
|
TBL
|
Metric |
TOR
|
|---|---|---|
| 5-5-0 | Record | 2-7-1 |
| 10 | Points | 5 |
| 26 | Goals for | 28 |
| 30 | Goals against | 47 |
| -4 | Goal differential | -19 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
TBL
4 wins
10
games reviewed
TOR
6 wins
Total goals35 – 36
Goal differential
-1
/
+1
Goals per game3.5 / 3.6
Shots per game31.9 / 30.5
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
5 - 2 | 33 - 29 | View |
| Feb 25, 2026 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
2 - 4 | 34 - 36 | View |
| Dec 8, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
0 - 2 | 29 - 24 | View |
| Apr 9, 2025 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
4 - 3 | 31 - 28 | View |
| Jan 20, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
3 - 5 | 30 - 28 | View |
| Nov 30, 2024 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
5 - 3 | 29 - 41 | View |
| Oct 21, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
2 - 5 | 34 - 29 | View |
| Apr 17, 2024 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
4 - 6 | 38 - 32 | View |
| Apr 3, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
4 - 1 | 25 - 29 | View |
| Nov 6, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
5 - 6 | 31 - 34 | View |