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Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 19, 2026

NHL matchup

Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 19, 2026.

December 19, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

7-3-1

43.9%
at
Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

7-4-2

56.1% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Toronto Maple Leafs at 56.1%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Away team

Tampa Bay Lightning

43.9%
Fair American +128
Fair decimal 2.28
Calculate value
Toronto Maple Leafs logo
Home team

Toronto Maple Leafs

56.1%
Fair American -128
Fair decimal 1.78
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 19, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 19. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

123:37 together · 10 games

xG share61.5%
Corsi for / against
154 / 103
Fenwick for / against
114 / 80
Corsi share
59.9%
Fenwick share
58.8%
xG for / against
7.27 / 4.55
All observed combinations

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

104:16 together · 10 games

xG share45.0%
Corsi for / against
87 / 118
Fenwick for / against
71 / 87
Corsi share
42.4%
Fenwick share
44.9%
xG for / against
4.07 / 4.98
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Dennis Hildeby

Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 24

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
78
Save %
88.5
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
35.9

Anthony Stolarz

Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
150
Save %
90.7
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
31.3
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 19, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Tampa Bay Lightning

xG for / game
3.56
xG against / game
2.79
xG differential / game
0.77

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Toronto Maple Leafs

xG for / game
3.20
xG against / game
3.44
xG differential / game
-0.24

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 19, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
63.5
Corsi share (%)
55.1
Fenwick share (%)
55.6
Faceoff win %
49.5
Penalties / game
3.7

Shots / game: 31.1 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 32.4 ft

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.0
Corsi share (%)
46.0
Fenwick share (%)
48.2
Faceoff win %
53.1
Penalties / game
4.2

Shots / game: 29.0 · Shooting: 15.2% · Avg distance: 32.5 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
15Points16
0.682Points %0.615
38Goals for50
34Goals against41
4Goal differential9
OT1Current streakW4
Road versus home
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL road
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR home
6Games8
2Wins4
5Points9
-5Goal differential-1
Last 10 games
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
7-2-1Record6-2-2
15Points14
37Goals for44
29Goals against34
8Goal differential10
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 4 wins
10 games reviewed
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR 6 wins
Total goals35 – 36
Goal differential -1 / +1
Goals per game3.5 / 3.6
Shots per game31.9 / 30.5
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 7, 2026
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
5 - 2 33 - 29 View
Feb 25, 2026
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
2 - 4 34 - 36 View
Dec 8, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
0 - 2 29 - 24 View
Apr 9, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 3 31 - 28 View
Jan 20, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 5 30 - 28 View
Nov 30, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
5 - 3 29 - 41 View
Oct 21, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
2 - 5 34 - 29 View
Apr 17, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 6 38 - 32 View
Apr 3, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
4 - 1 25 - 29 View
Nov 6, 2023
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
5 - 6 31 - 34 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
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