Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 7, 2026
Get the playerWON NHL prediction for the Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs matchup on March 7, 2026. playerWON’s machine-learning model currently gives the Tampa Bay Lightning a 67.8% win probability.
🤖 Model favours Tampa Bay Lightning
(67.8%)
Compare market odds, fair odds, and value below.
March 7, 2026
Visitor Model vs Market
Tampa Bay Lightning
67.8%
Fair American: -211
Fair Decimal: 1.47
Calculate Value →
Home Model vs Market
Toronto Maple Leafs
32.2%
Fair American: +211
Fair Decimal: 3.11
Calculate Value →
📊 Season Overview
|
TBL
|
Metric |
TOR
|
|---|---|---|
| 106 | Points | 78 |
| 0.646 | Points % | 0.476 |
| 290 | Goals For | 253 |
| 231 | Goals Against | 299 |
| 59 | Goal Differential | -46 |
| L1 | Current Streak | L5 |
🚍 Road vs 🏠 Home
|
TBL (Road)
|
Metric |
TOR (Home)
|
|---|---|---|
| 41 | Games | 41 |
| 24 | Wins | 18 |
| 53 | Points | 44 |
| 37 | Goal Differential | -10 |
🔥 Last 10 Games
|
TBL
|
Metric |
TOR
|
|---|---|---|
| 5-5-0 | Record | 2-7-1 |
| 10 | Points | 5 |
| 26 | Goals For | 28 |
| 30 | Goals Against | 47 |
| -4 | Goal Differential | -19 |
🥅 Last 10 Head-to-Head Games
|
TBL
|
H2H Summary |
TOR
|
|---|---|---|
| 3-7 | Record | 7-3 |
| 33 | Total Goals | 38 |
| -5 | Goal Differential | +5 |
| 3.3 | Goals / Game | 3.8 |
| 31.7 | Shots / Game | 32.8 |
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
@
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
|
2 - 4 | 34 - 36 | View |
| Dec 8, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
Toronto Maple Leafs
@
|
0 - 2 | 29 - 24 | View |
| Apr 9, 2025 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
@
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
|
4 - 3 | 31 - 28 | View |
| Jan 20, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
Toronto Maple Leafs
@
|
3 - 5 | 30 - 28 | View |
| Nov 30, 2024 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
@
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
|
5 - 3 | 29 - 41 | View |
| Oct 21, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
Toronto Maple Leafs
@
|
2 - 5 | 34 - 29 | View |
| Apr 17, 2024 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
@
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
|
4 - 6 | 38 - 32 | View |
| Apr 3, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
Toronto Maple Leafs
@
|
4 - 1 | 25 - 29 | View |
| Nov 6, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
Toronto Maple Leafs
@
|
5 - 6 | 31 - 34 | View |
| Oct 21, 2023 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
@
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
|
4 - 3 | 52 - 31 | View |
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s machine-learning model, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.