Forward trio
98:35 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 92 / 77
- Fenwick for / against
- 57 / 53
- Corsi share
- 54.4%
- Fenwick share
- 51.8%
- xG for / against
- 4.73 / 2.69
Tampa Bay Lightning vs St. Louis Blues prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 16, 2026
NHL matchup
Tampa Bay Lightning at St. Louis Blues
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for January 16, 2026.
January 16, 2026
· 7:00 PM CST
Model V2 prediction is not available yet for this game.
View final boxscore
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 16. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Defense pair
141:38 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 154 / 100
- Fenwick for / against
- 108 / 75
- Corsi share
- 60.6%
- Fenwick share
- 59.0%
- xG for / against
- 6.59 / 4.86
St. Louis Blues
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
47:33 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 32 / 40
- Fenwick for / against
- 22 / 27
- Corsi share
- 44.4%
- Fenwick share
- 44.9%
- xG for / against
- 0.93 / 1.96
Defense pair
125:25 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 104 / 137
- Fenwick for / against
- 84 / 89
- Corsi share
- 43.2%
- Fenwick share
- 48.6%
- xG for / against
- 6.47 / 6.12
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Jan 13
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 130
- Save %
- 91.5
- Goals allowed
- 11
- Close-range shots %
- 30.8
Joel Hofer
St. Louis Blues · Last start: Jan 13
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 146
- Save %
- 91.8
- Goals allowed
- 12
- Close-range shots %
- 28.1
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 16, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Tampa Bay Lightning
- xG for / game
- 3.25
- xG against / game
- 3.28
- xG differential / game
- -0.03
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
St. Louis Blues
- xG for / game
- 2.56
- xG against / game
- 3.07
- xG differential / game
- -0.52
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 16, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 55.0
- Corsi share (%)
- 49.2
- Fenwick share (%)
- 48.1
- Faceoff win %
- 43.5
- Penalties / game
- 7.2
Shots / game: 25.0 · Shooting: 18.0% · Avg distance: 31.8 ft
St. Louis Blues
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 45.6
- Corsi share (%)
- 42.0
- Fenwick share (%)
- 42.9
- Faceoff win %
- 48.9
- Penalties / game
- 3.4
Shots / game: 22.1 · Shooting: 10.4% · Avg distance: 33.7 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
TBL
|
Metric |
STL
|
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Points | 11 |
| 0.682 | Points % | 0.458 |
| 38 | Goals for | 35 |
| 34 | Goals against | 37 |
| 4 | Goal differential | -2 |
| OT1 | Current streak | L2 |
Road versus home
|
TBL road
|
Metric |
STL home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 6 |
| 2 | Wins | 3 |
| 5 | Points | 7 |
| -5 | Goal differential | 0 |
Last 10 games
|
TBL
|
Metric |
STL
|
|---|---|---|
| 7-2-1 | Record | 4-5-1 |
| 15 | Points | 9 |
| 37 | Goals for | 30 |
| 29 | Goals against | 31 |
| 8 | Goal differential | -1 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
TBL
6 wins
10
games reviewed
STL
4 wins
Total goals34 – 25
Goal differential
+9
/
-9
Goals per game3.4 / 2.5
Shots per game28.1 / 28.3
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2025 |
St. Louis Blues
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
1 - 4 | 24 - 17 | View |
| Dec 19, 2024 |
St. Louis Blues
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
1 - 3 | 32 - 18 | View |
| Nov 5, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
St. Louis Blues
|
2 - 3 | 23 - 23 | View |
| Dec 19, 2023 |
St. Louis Blues
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
1 - 6 | 29 - 33 | View |
| Nov 14, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
St. Louis Blues
|
0 - 5 | 30 - 29 | View |
| Jan 14, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
St. Louis Blues
|
4 - 2 | 30 - 25 | View |
| Nov 25, 2022 |
St. Louis Blues
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
2 - 5 | 27 - 27 | View |
| Dec 2, 2021 |
St. Louis Blues
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
2 - 4 | 28 - 35 | View |
| Nov 30, 2021 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
St. Louis Blues
|
3 - 4 | 33 - 33 | View |
| Nov 27, 2019 |
St. Louis Blues
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
4 - 3 | 33 - 35 | View |