Forward trio
68:09 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 57 / 60
- Fenwick for / against
- 41 / 47
- Corsi share
- 48.7%
- Fenwick share
- 46.6%
- xG for / against
- 2.58 / 2.50
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Seattle Kraken prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 17, 2026
NHL matchup
Tampa Bay Lightning at Seattle Kraken
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 17, 2026.
March 17, 2026
· 9:00 PM CST
Model V2 prediction is not available yet for this game.
View final boxscore
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 17. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Defense pair
94:28 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 94 / 67
- Fenwick for / against
- 67 / 62
- Corsi share
- 58.4%
- Fenwick share
- 51.9%
- xG for / against
- 4.22 / 4.36
Seattle Kraken
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
92:27 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 85 / 94
- Fenwick for / against
- 69 / 67
- Corsi share
- 47.5%
- Fenwick share
- 50.7%
- xG for / against
- 3.96 / 4.68
Defense pair
135:22 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 115 / 141
- Fenwick for / against
- 87 / 109
- Corsi share
- 44.9%
- Fenwick share
- 44.4%
- xG for / against
- 5.62 / 6.39
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Mar 14
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 148
- Save %
- 91.2
- Goals allowed
- 13
- Close-range shots %
- 38.5
Joey Daccord
Seattle Kraken · Last start: Mar 15
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 139
- Save %
- 88.5
- Goals allowed
- 16
- Close-range shots %
- 25.9
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 17, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Tampa Bay Lightning
- xG for / game
- 3.31
- xG against / game
- 3.40
- xG differential / game
- -0.10
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Seattle Kraken
- xG for / game
- 2.89
- xG against / game
- 3.10
- xG differential / game
- -0.21
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 17, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 58.6
- Corsi share (%)
- 50.6
- Fenwick share (%)
- 48.8
- Faceoff win %
- 49.0
- Penalties / game
- 5.4
Shots / game: 28.2 · Shooting: 11.3% · Avg distance: 30.8 ft
Seattle Kraken
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 53.1
- Corsi share (%)
- 46.0
- Fenwick share (%)
- 46.7
- Faceoff win %
- 49.0
- Penalties / game
- 2.4
Shots / game: 27.2 · Shooting: 10.7% · Avg distance: 34.3 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
TBL
|
Metric |
SEA
|
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Points | 15 |
| 0.682 | Points % | 0.625 |
| 38 | Goals for | 45 |
| 34 | Goals against | 42 |
| 4 | Goal differential | 3 |
| OT1 | Current streak | L1 |
Road versus home
|
TBL road
|
Metric |
SEA home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 5 |
| 2 | Wins | 3 |
| 5 | Points | 6 |
| -5 | Goal differential | 0 |
Last 10 games
|
TBL
|
Metric |
SEA
|
|---|---|---|
| 7-2-1 | Record | 6-3-1 |
| 15 | Points | 13 |
| 37 | Goals for | 38 |
| 29 | Goals against | 38 |
| 8 | Goal differential | 0 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
TBL
7 wins
8
games reviewed
SEA
1 wins
Total goals33 – 13
Goal differential
+20
/
-20
Goals per game4.12 / 1.62
Shots per game31.4 / 29.2
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2025 |
Seattle Kraken
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
1 - 4 | 37 - 24 | View |
| Dec 14, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Seattle Kraken
|
5 - 1 | 31 - 22 | View |
| Dec 9, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Seattle Kraken
|
4 - 3 | 30 - 29 | View |
| Oct 30, 2023 |
Seattle Kraken
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
4 - 3 | 43 - 37 | View |
| Jan 16, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Seattle Kraken
|
4 - 1 | 31 - 23 | View |
| Dec 13, 2022 |
Seattle Kraken
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
2 - 6 | 38 - 30 | View |
| Mar 16, 2022 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Seattle Kraken
|
4 - 1 | 42 - 25 | View |
| Nov 26, 2021 |
Seattle Kraken
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
0 - 3 | 17 - 26 | View |