Away team
Tampa Bay Lightning
51.9%
Fair American
-108
Fair decimal
1.93
Tampa Bay Lightning vs San Jose Sharks prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 6, 2027
NHL matchup
Tampa Bay Lightning at San Jose Sharks
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 6, 2027.
March 6, 2027
· 9:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Tampa Bay Lightning at 51.9%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
San Jose Sharks
48.1%
Fair American
+108
Fair decimal
2.08
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Mar 6, 2027.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 5-1
- Net units
- 1.45
- ROI
- 24.2%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Net units
- 0.00
- ROI
- —
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 6-2
- Net units
- 1.06
- ROI
- 13.3%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 4
- Record
- 2-2
- Net units
- 0.45
- ROI
- 11.3%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 9
- Record
- 4-5
- Net units
- 0.66
- ROI
- 7.3%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 1
- Record
- 1-0
- Net units
- 0.89
- ROI
- 89.3%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 6. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
95:17 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 85 / 83
- Fenwick for / against
- 64 / 59
- Corsi share
- 50.6%
- Fenwick share
- 52.0%
- xG for / against
- 3.69 / 3.31
Defense pair
123:37 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 154 / 103
- Fenwick for / against
- 114 / 80
- Corsi share
- 59.9%
- Fenwick share
- 58.8%
- xG for / against
- 7.27 / 4.55
San Jose Sharks
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
63:28 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 76 / 51
- Fenwick for / against
- 59 / 36
- Corsi share
- 59.8%
- Fenwick share
- 62.1%
- xG for / against
- 4.69 / 2.73
Defense pair
128:35 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 111 / 133
- Fenwick for / against
- 79 / 95
- Corsi share
- 45.5%
- Fenwick share
- 45.4%
- xG for / against
- 4.57 / 5.46
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected starter unavailable.
San Jose Sharks
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Dennis Hildeby
Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 24
3 / 3 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 78
- Save %
- 88.5
- Goals allowed
- 9
- Close-range shots %
- 35.9
Yaroslav Askarov
San Jose Sharks · Last start: Oct 27
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 158
- Save %
- 91.8
- Goals allowed
- 13
- Close-range shots %
- 35.4
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 6, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Tampa Bay Lightning
- xG for / game
- 3.56
- xG against / game
- 2.79
- xG differential / game
- 0.77
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
San Jose Sharks
- xG for / game
- 3.07
- xG against / game
- 3.93
- xG differential / game
- -0.86
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 6, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 63.5
- Corsi share (%)
- 55.1
- Fenwick share (%)
- 55.6
- Faceoff win %
- 49.5
- Penalties / game
- 3.7
Shots / game: 31.1 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 32.4 ft
San Jose Sharks
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 58.6
- Corsi share (%)
- 47.0
- Fenwick share (%)
- 45.9
- Faceoff win %
- 48.0
- Penalties / game
- 4.1
Shots / game: 29.0 · Shooting: 9.3% · Avg distance: 34.0 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
TBL
|
Metric |
SJS
|
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Points | 13 |
| 0.682 | Points % | 0.500 |
| 38 | Goals for | 37 |
| 34 | Goals against | 45 |
| 4 | Goal differential | -8 |
| OT1 | Current streak | L2 |
Road versus home
|
TBL road
|
Metric |
SJS home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 5 |
| 2 | Wins | 2 |
| 5 | Points | 4 |
| -5 | Goal differential | -5 |
Last 10 games
|
TBL
|
Metric |
SJS
|
|---|---|---|
| 7-2-1 | Record | 4-5-1 |
| 15 | Points | 9 |
| 37 | Goals for | 28 |
| 29 | Goals against | 33 |
| 8 | Goal differential | -5 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
TBL
8 wins
10
games reviewed
SJS
2 wins
Total goals47 – 18
Goal differential
+29
/
-29
Goals per game4.7 / 1.8
Shots per game28.4 / 23.4
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2026 |
San Jose Sharks
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
1 - 4 | 23 - 20 | View |
| Jan 3, 2026 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
San Jose Sharks
|
7 - 3 | 26 - 22 | View |
| Jan 2, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
San Jose Sharks
|
1 - 2 | 25 - 25 | View |
| Dec 5, 2024 |
San Jose Sharks
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
1 - 8 | 21 - 35 | View |
| Mar 21, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
San Jose Sharks
|
4 - 1 | 21 - 22 | View |
| Oct 26, 2023 |
San Jose Sharks
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
0 - 6 | 23 - 31 | View |
| Feb 7, 2023 |
San Jose Sharks
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
4 - 3 | 22 - 37 | View |
| Oct 29, 2022 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
San Jose Sharks
|
4 - 3 | 26 - 27 | View |
| Feb 1, 2022 |
San Jose Sharks
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
2 - 3 | 21 - 32 | View |
| Jan 22, 2022 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
San Jose Sharks
|
7 - 1 | 31 - 28 | View |