Skip to content

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Pittsburgh Penguins prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for February 2, 2027

NHL matchup

Tampa Bay Lightning at Pittsburgh Penguins

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for February 2, 2027.

February 2, 2027 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

7-3-1

48.1%
at
Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

5-6-1

51.9% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Pittsburgh Penguins at 51.9%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Away team

Tampa Bay Lightning

48.1%
Fair American +108
Fair decimal 2.08
Calculate value
Pittsburgh Penguins logo
Home team

Pittsburgh Penguins

51.9%
Fair American -108
Fair decimal 1.93
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Feb 2, 2027.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 2. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

123:37 together · 10 games

xG share61.5%
Corsi for / against
154 / 103
Fenwick for / against
114 / 80
Corsi share
59.9%
Fenwick share
58.8%
xG for / against
7.27 / 4.55
All observed combinations

Pittsburgh Penguins

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

62:36 together · 7 games

xG share45.1%
Corsi for / against
62 / 60
Fenwick for / against
44 / 50
Corsi share
50.8%
Fenwick share
46.8%
xG for / against
3.72 / 4.52
Defense pair

83:42 together · 10 games

xG share41.7%
Corsi for / against
96 / 88
Fenwick for / against
70 / 70
Corsi share
52.2%
Fenwick share
50.0%
xG for / against
3.95 / 5.54
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Dennis Hildeby

Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 24

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
78
Save %
88.5
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
35.9

Arturs Silovs

Pittsburgh Penguins · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
138
Save %
90.6
Goals allowed
13
Close-range shots %
32.6
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 2, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Tampa Bay Lightning

xG for / game
3.56
xG against / game
2.79
xG differential / game
0.77

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Pittsburgh Penguins

xG for / game
3.15
xG against / game
3.33
xG differential / game
-0.18

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 2, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
63.5
Corsi share (%)
55.1
Fenwick share (%)
55.6
Faceoff win %
49.5
Penalties / game
3.7

Shots / game: 31.1 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 32.4 ft

Pittsburgh Penguins

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
57.9
Corsi share (%)
50.9
Fenwick share (%)
50.1
Faceoff win %
46.6
Penalties / game
2.9

Shots / game: 26.5 · Shooting: 9.8% · Avg distance: 31.3 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT
15Points11
0.682Points %0.458
38Goals for40
34Goals against40
4Goal differential0
OT1Current streakW2
Road versus home
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL road
Metric
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT home
6Games5
2Wins4
5Points8
-5Goal differential6
Last 10 games
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT
7-2-1Record3-6-1
15Points7
37Goals for27
29Goals against35
8Goal differential-8
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 6 wins
10 games reviewed
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT 4 wins
Total goals38 – 28
Goal differential +10 / -10
Goals per game3.8 / 2.8
Shots per game31.8 / 26.3
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Apr 2, 2026
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 6 24 - 33 View
Jan 13, 2026
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
2 - 1 31 - 27 View
Dec 4, 2025
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 3 31 - 40 View
Mar 25, 2025
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 6 15 - 27 View
Jan 12, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
5 - 2 19 - 33 View
Nov 19, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
3 - 2 35 - 19 View
Apr 6, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
4 - 5 34 - 28 View
Dec 6, 2023
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 3 25 - 27 View
Nov 30, 2023
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 2 29 - 41 View
Mar 2, 2023
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
5 - 4 32 - 31 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings TBL PIT