Forward trio
90:56 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 84 / 68
- Fenwick for / against
- 54 / 45
- Corsi share
- 55.3%
- Fenwick share
- 54.5%
- xG for / against
- 4.42 / 2.29
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Pittsburgh Penguins prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 13, 2026
NHL matchup
Tampa Bay Lightning at Pittsburgh Penguins
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for January 13, 2026.
January 13, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 prediction is not available yet for this game.
View final boxscore
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 13. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Defense pair
140:53 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 154 / 107
- Fenwick for / against
- 111 / 79
- Corsi share
- 59.0%
- Fenwick share
- 58.4%
- xG for / against
- 7.70 / 4.93
Pittsburgh Penguins
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
104:25 together · 8 games
- Corsi for / against
- 119 / 102
- Fenwick for / against
- 90 / 72
- Corsi share
- 53.8%
- Fenwick share
- 55.6%
- xG for / against
- 5.59 / 4.39
Defense pair
165:31 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 159 / 151
- Fenwick for / against
- 113 / 97
- Corsi share
- 51.3%
- Fenwick share
- 53.8%
- xG for / against
- 7.07 / 6.03
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Jonas Johansson
Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Jan 12
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 117
- Save %
- 87.2
- Goals allowed
- 15
- Close-range shots %
- 34.2
Stuart Skinner
Pittsburgh Penguins · Last start: Jan 11
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 117
- Save %
- 93.2
- Goals allowed
- 8
- Close-range shots %
- 34.2
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 13, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Tampa Bay Lightning
- xG for / game
- 3.36
- xG against / game
- 3.08
- xG differential / game
- 0.28
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Pittsburgh Penguins
- xG for / game
- 3.02
- xG against / game
- 2.73
- xG differential / game
- 0.28
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 13, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 55.0
- Corsi share (%)
- 49.3
- Fenwick share (%)
- 48.6
- Faceoff win %
- 45.0
- Penalties / game
- 7.1
Shots / game: 24.8 · Shooting: 20.2% · Avg distance: 31.6 ft
Pittsburgh Penguins
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 63.3
- Corsi share (%)
- 52.8
- Fenwick share (%)
- 53.2
- Faceoff win %
- 50.4
- Penalties / game
- 3.2
Shots / game: 30.4 · Shooting: 11.8% · Avg distance: 32.2 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
TBL
|
Metric |
PIT
|
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Points | 11 |
| 0.682 | Points % | 0.458 |
| 38 | Goals for | 40 |
| 34 | Goals against | 40 |
| 4 | Goal differential | 0 |
| OT1 | Current streak | W2 |
Road versus home
|
TBL road
|
Metric |
PIT home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 5 |
| 2 | Wins | 4 |
| 5 | Points | 8 |
| -5 | Goal differential | 6 |
Last 10 games
|
TBL
|
Metric |
PIT
|
|---|---|---|
| 7-2-1 | Record | 3-6-1 |
| 15 | Points | 7 |
| 37 | Goals for | 27 |
| 29 | Goals against | 35 |
| 8 | Goal differential | -8 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
TBL
4 wins
10
games reviewed
PIT
6 wins
Total goals35 – 37
Goal differential
-2
/
+2
Goals per game3.5 / 3.7
Shots per game31.9 / 29.3
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
4 - 3 | 31 - 40 | View |
| Mar 25, 2025 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
1 - 6 | 15 - 27 | View |
| Jan 12, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
5 - 2 | 19 - 33 | View |
| Nov 19, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
3 - 2 | 35 - 19 | View |
| Apr 6, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
4 - 5 | 34 - 28 | View |
| Dec 6, 2023 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
1 - 3 | 25 - 27 | View |
| Nov 30, 2023 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
4 - 2 | 29 - 41 | View |
| Mar 2, 2023 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
5 - 4 | 32 - 31 | View |
| Feb 26, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
3 - 7 | 29 - 36 | View |
| Oct 15, 2022 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
2 - 6 | 36 - 45 | View |