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Tampa Bay Lightning vs Philadelphia Flyers prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for February 3, 2027

NHL matchup

Tampa Bay Lightning at Philadelphia Flyers

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for February 3, 2027.

February 3, 2027 · 6:30 PM CST
Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

7-3-1

60.1% Model pick
at
Home

Philadelphia Flyers

3-7-3

39.9%
Model V2 pick: Tampa Bay Lightning at 60.1%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Away team

Tampa Bay Lightning

60.1%
Fair American -151
Fair decimal 1.66
Calculate value
Philadelphia Flyers logo
Home team

Philadelphia Flyers

39.9%
Fair American +151
Fair decimal 2.51
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Feb 3, 2027.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 3. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

123:37 together · 10 games

xG share61.5%
Corsi for / against
154 / 103
Fenwick for / against
114 / 80
Corsi share
59.9%
Fenwick share
58.8%
xG for / against
7.27 / 4.55
All observed combinations

Philadelphia Flyers

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

49:44 together · 7 games

xG share61.4%
Corsi for / against
40 / 38
Fenwick for / against
22 / 25
Corsi share
51.3%
Fenwick share
46.8%
xG for / against
2.09 / 1.31
Defense pair

106:21 together · 7 games

xG share53.1%
Corsi for / against
96 / 92
Fenwick for / against
69 / 59
Corsi share
51.1%
Fenwick share
53.9%
xG for / against
4.34 / 3.84
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Dennis Hildeby

Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 24

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
78
Save %
88.5
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
35.9

Joseph Woll

Philadelphia Flyers · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
134
Save %
88.8
Goals allowed
15
Close-range shots %
32.1
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 3, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Tampa Bay Lightning

xG for / game
3.56
xG against / game
2.79
xG differential / game
0.77

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Philadelphia Flyers

xG for / game
2.65
xG against / game
3.44
xG differential / game
-0.79

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 3, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
63.5
Corsi share (%)
55.1
Fenwick share (%)
55.6
Faceoff win %
49.5
Penalties / game
3.7

Shots / game: 31.1 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 32.4 ft

Philadelphia Flyers

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
50.2
Corsi share (%)
45.7
Fenwick share (%)
44.6
Faceoff win %
49.8
Penalties / game
4.2

Shots / game: 23.3 · Shooting: 8.6% · Avg distance: 31.2 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Philadelphia Flyers PHI
15Points9
0.682Points %0.346
38Goals for24
34Goals against42
4Goal differential-18
OT1Current streakL1
Road versus home
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL road
Metric
Philadelphia Flyers PHI home
6Games7
2Wins2
5Points6
-5Goal differential-10
Last 10 games
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Philadelphia Flyers PHI
7-2-1Record3-6-1
15Points7
37Goals for20
29Goals against29
8Goal differential-9
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 7 wins
10 games reviewed
Philadelphia Flyers PHI 3 wins
Total goals40 – 19
Goal differential +21 / -21
Goals per game4.0 / 1.9
Shots per game23.8 / 24.4
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Oct 5, 2026
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 4 14 - 36 View
Jan 12, 2026
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
5 - 1 26 - 21 View
Jan 10, 2026
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
7 - 2 23 - 20 View
Nov 24, 2025
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
0 - 3 20 - 18 View
Mar 17, 2025
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
0 - 2 21 - 23 View
Mar 13, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
3 - 4 20 - 29 View
Nov 7, 2024
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
2 - 1 31 - 23 View
Mar 9, 2024
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
0 - 7 25 - 26 View
Feb 27, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
2 - 6 22 - 31 View
Jan 23, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
6 - 3 21 - 32 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
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