Forward trio
89:17 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 80 / 62
- Fenwick for / against
- 57 / 38
- Corsi share
- 56.3%
- Fenwick share
- 60.0%
- xG for / against
- 4.12 / 1.95
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Philadelphia Flyers prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 12, 2026
NHL matchup
Tampa Bay Lightning at Philadelphia Flyers
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for January 12, 2026.
January 12, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 prediction is not available yet for this game.
View final boxscore
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 12. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Defense pair
145:08 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 161 / 107
- Fenwick for / against
- 114 / 79
- Corsi share
- 60.1%
- Fenwick share
- 59.1%
- xG for / against
- 7.30 / 4.59
Philadelphia Flyers
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
90:17 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 103 / 72
- Fenwick for / against
- 74 / 42
- Corsi share
- 58.9%
- Fenwick share
- 63.8%
- xG for / against
- 5.82 / 2.62
Defense pair
119:09 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 89 / 120
- Fenwick for / against
- 65 / 84
- Corsi share
- 42.6%
- Fenwick share
- 43.6%
- xG for / against
- 3.79 / 4.69
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Jan 10
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 129
- Save %
- 90.7
- Goals allowed
- 12
- Close-range shots %
- 31.0
Samuel Ersson
Philadelphia Flyers · Last start: Jan 10
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 124
- Save %
- 83.1
- Goals allowed
- 21
- Close-range shots %
- 22.6
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 12, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Tampa Bay Lightning
- xG for / game
- 3.30
- xG against / game
- 3.00
- xG differential / game
- 0.30
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Philadelphia Flyers
- xG for / game
- 3.30
- xG against / game
- 2.58
- xG differential / game
- 0.72
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 12, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 57.2
- Corsi share (%)
- 51.2
- Fenwick share (%)
- 50.4
- Faceoff win %
- 47.0
- Penalties / game
- 6.3
Shots / game: 25.4 · Shooting: 18.1% · Avg distance: 32.3 ft
Philadelphia Flyers
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 60.3
- Corsi share (%)
- 51.3
- Fenwick share (%)
- 53.1
- Faceoff win %
- 48.2
- Penalties / game
- 3.7
Shots / game: 30.1 · Shooting: 11.0% · Avg distance: 33.3 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
TBL
|
Metric |
PHI
|
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Points | 10 |
| 0.682 | Points % | 0.357 |
| 38 | Goals for | 27 |
| 34 | Goals against | 46 |
| 4 | Goal differential | -19 |
| OT1 | Current streak | OT1 |
Road versus home
|
TBL road
|
Metric |
PHI home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 8 |
| 2 | Wins | 2 |
| 5 | Points | 7 |
| -5 | Goal differential | -11 |
Last 10 games
|
TBL
|
Metric |
PHI
|
|---|---|---|
| 7-2-1 | Record | 3-5-2 |
| 15 | Points | 8 |
| 37 | Goals for | 22 |
| 29 | Goals against | 29 |
| 8 | Goal differential | -7 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
TBL
7 wins
10
games reviewed
PHI
3 wins
Total goals40 – 20
Goal differential
+20
/
-20
Goals per game4.0 / 2.0
Shots per game24.2 / 26.6
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Philadelphia Flyers
|
7 - 2 | 23 - 20 | View |
| Nov 24, 2025 |
Philadelphia Flyers
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
0 - 3 | 20 - 18 | View |
| Mar 17, 2025 |
Philadelphia Flyers
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
0 - 2 | 21 - 23 | View |
| Mar 13, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Philadelphia Flyers
|
3 - 4 | 20 - 29 | View |
| Nov 7, 2024 |
Philadelphia Flyers
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
2 - 1 | 31 - 23 | View |
| Mar 9, 2024 |
Philadelphia Flyers
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
0 - 7 | 25 - 26 | View |
| Feb 27, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Philadelphia Flyers
|
2 - 6 | 22 - 31 | View |
| Jan 23, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Philadelphia Flyers
|
6 - 3 | 21 - 32 | View |
| Mar 7, 2023 |
Philadelphia Flyers
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
2 - 5 | 35 - 39 | View |
| Dec 1, 2022 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Philadelphia Flyers
|
4 - 1 | 27 - 22 | View |