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Tampa Bay Lightning vs Ottawa Senators prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 20, 2027

NHL matchup

Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 20, 2027.

March 20, 2027 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

7-3-1

50.1% Model pick
at
Home

Ottawa Senators

8-5-0

49.9%
Model V2 pick: Tampa Bay Lightning at 50.1%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Away team

Tampa Bay Lightning

50.1%
Fair American -100
Fair decimal 2.0
Calculate value
Ottawa Senators logo
Home team

Ottawa Senators

49.9%
Fair American +100
Fair decimal 2.0
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Mar 20, 2027.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 20. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

123:37 together · 10 games

xG share61.5%
Corsi for / against
154 / 103
Fenwick for / against
114 / 80
Corsi share
59.9%
Fenwick share
58.8%
xG for / against
7.27 / 4.55
All observed combinations

Ottawa Senators

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

39:16 together · 9 games

xG share42.8%
Corsi for / against
34 / 42
Fenwick for / against
21 / 38
Corsi share
44.7%
Fenwick share
35.6%
xG for / against
1.84 / 2.46
Defense pair

81:43 together · 9 games

xG share62.9%
Corsi for / against
98 / 76
Fenwick for / against
67 / 46
Corsi share
56.3%
Fenwick share
59.3%
xG for / against
4.60 / 2.72
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Dennis Hildeby

Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 24

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
78
Save %
88.5
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
35.9

Jonas Johansson

Ottawa Senators · Last start: Oct 27

2 / 2 appearances covered

Shots faced
56
Save %
89.3
Goals allowed
6
Close-range shots %
33.9
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 20, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Tampa Bay Lightning

xG for / game
3.56
xG against / game
2.79
xG differential / game
0.77

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Ottawa Senators

xG for / game
2.85
xG against / game
2.72
xG differential / game
0.13

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 20, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
63.5
Corsi share (%)
55.1
Fenwick share (%)
55.6
Faceoff win %
49.5
Penalties / game
3.7

Shots / game: 31.1 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 32.4 ft

Ottawa Senators

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
56.2
Corsi share (%)
49.5
Fenwick share (%)
49.0
Faceoff win %
52.4
Penalties / game
4.3

Shots / game: 25.3 · Shooting: 10.7% · Avg distance: 31.9 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT
15Points16
0.682Points %0.615
38Goals for39
34Goals against38
4Goal differential1
OT1Current streakL1
Road versus home
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL road
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT home
6Games7
2Wins5
5Points10
-5Goal differential1
Last 10 games
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT
7-2-1Record6-4-0
15Points12
37Goals for29
29Goals against30
8Goal differential-1
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 4 wins
10 games reviewed
Ottawa Senators OTT 6 wins
Total goals34 – 35
Goal differential -1 / +1
Goals per game3.4 / 3.5
Shots per game30.1 / 28.0
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Apr 7, 2026
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
2 - 6 30 - 32 View
Mar 28, 2026
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
2 - 4 28 - 27 View
Oct 9, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
5 - 4 34 - 25 View
Apr 3, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
1 - 2 32 - 19 View
Feb 6, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 5 28 - 31 View
Feb 4, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 4 28 - 38 View
Oct 19, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
4 - 5 29 - 28 View
Apr 11, 2024
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 2 27 - 26 View
Feb 19, 2024
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 2 28 - 25 View
Nov 4, 2023
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
6 - 4 38 - 28 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
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