Tampa Bay Lightning vs Ottawa Senators prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for April 7, 2026
Get the playerWON NHL prediction for the Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators matchup on April 7, 2026. playerWON’s machine-learning model currently gives the Tampa Bay Lightning a 54.9% win probability.
🤖 Model favours Tampa Bay Lightning
(54.9%)
Compare market odds, fair odds, and value below.
April 7, 2026
Visitor Model vs Market
Tampa Bay Lightning
54.9%
Fair American: -122
Fair Decimal: 1.82
Best Market: +115 · BetRivers
Market Implied: 46.5%
Edge: +8.4%
EV: +18.0%
Calculate Value →
Home Model vs Market
Ottawa Senators
45.1%
Fair American: +122
Fair Decimal: 2.22
Best Market: -125 · BetUS
Market Implied: 55.6%
Edge: -10.5%
EV: -18.8%
Calculate Value →
📊 Season Overview
|
TBL
|
Metric |
OTT
|
|---|---|---|
| 106 | Points | 99 |
| 0.646 | Points % | 0.604 |
| 290 | Goals For | 278 |
| 231 | Goals Against | 246 |
| 59 | Goal Differential | 32 |
| L1 | Current Streak | W1 |
🚍 Road vs 🏠 Home
|
TBL (Road)
|
Metric |
OTT (Home)
|
|---|---|---|
| 41 | Games | 41 |
| 24 | Wins | 23 |
| 53 | Points | 52 |
| 37 | Goal Differential | 31 |
🔥 Last 10 Games
|
TBL
|
Metric |
OTT
|
|---|---|---|
| 5-5-0 | Record | 6-3-1 |
| 10 | Points | 13 |
| 26 | Goals For | 36 |
| 30 | Goals Against | 26 |
| -4 | Goal Differential | 10 |
🥅 Last 10 Head-to-Head Games
|
TBL
|
H2H Summary |
OTT
|
|---|---|---|
| 4-6 | Record | 6-4 |
| 34 | Total Goals | 34 |
| 0 | Goal Differential | 0 |
| 3.4 | Goals / Game | 3.4 |
| 29.5 | Shots / Game | 28.6 |
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 |
Ottawa Senators
@
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
|
2 - 4 | 28 - 27 | View |
| Oct 9, 2025 |
Ottawa Senators
@
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
|
5 - 4 | 34 - 25 | View |
| Apr 3, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
Ottawa Senators
@
|
1 - 2 | 32 - 19 | View |
| Feb 6, 2025 |
Ottawa Senators
@
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
|
1 - 5 | 28 - 31 | View |
| Feb 4, 2025 |
Ottawa Senators
@
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
|
3 - 4 | 28 - 38 | View |
| Oct 19, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
Ottawa Senators
@
|
4 - 5 | 29 - 28 | View |
| Apr 11, 2024 |
Ottawa Senators
@
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
|
3 - 2 | 27 - 26 | View |
| Feb 19, 2024 |
Ottawa Senators
@
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
|
4 - 2 | 28 - 25 | View |
| Nov 4, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
Ottawa Senators
@
|
6 - 4 | 38 - 28 | View |
| Oct 15, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
Ottawa Senators
@
|
2 - 5 | 24 - 38 | View |
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s machine-learning model, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.