Tampa Bay Lightning vs Ottawa Senators prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for April 7, 2026

NHL matchup

Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators

View the PlayerWON model prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for April 7, 2026.

April 7, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

50-26-6
at
Home

Ottawa Senators

44-27-11
Model favourite Tampa Bay Lightning at 54.9%
Prediction

Model versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Away team

Tampa Bay Lightning

54.9%
Fair American -122
Fair decimal 1.82
Best market +115 · BetRivers
Market implied 46.5%
Edge +8.4%
Expected value +18.0%
Calculate value
Ottawa Senators logo
Home team

Ottawa Senators

45.1%
Fair American +122
Fair decimal 2.22
Best market -125 · BetUS
Market implied 55.6%
Edge -10.5%
Expected value -18.8%
Calculate value
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT
106Points99
0.646Points %0.604
290Goals for278
231Goals against246
59Goal differential32
L1Current streakW1
Road versus home
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL road
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT home
41Games41
24Wins23
53Points52
37Goal differential31
Last 10 games
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT
5-5-0Record6-3-1
10Points13
26Goals for36
30Goals against26
-4Goal differential10
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 4 wins
10 games reviewed
Ottawa Senators OTT 6 wins
Total goals34 – 34
Goal differential 0 / 0
Goals per game3.4 / 3.4
Shots per game29.5 / 28.6
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 28, 2026
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
2 - 4 28 - 27 View
Oct 9, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
5 - 4 34 - 25 View
Apr 3, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
1 - 2 32 - 19 View
Feb 6, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 5 28 - 31 View
Feb 4, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 4 28 - 38 View
Oct 19, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
4 - 5 29 - 28 View
Apr 11, 2024
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 2 27 - 26 View
Feb 19, 2024
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 2 28 - 25 View
Nov 4, 2023
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
6 - 4 38 - 28 View
Oct 15, 2023
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
2 - 5 24 - 38 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s machine-learning model, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
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