Away team
Tampa Bay Lightning
46.1%
Fair American
+117
Fair decimal
2.17
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montréal Canadiens prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 2, 2026
NHL matchup
Tampa Bay Lightning at Montréal Canadiens
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 2, 2026.
December 2, 2026
· 6:30 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Montréal Canadiens at 53.9%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Montréal Canadiens
53.9%
Fair American
-117
Fair decimal
1.86
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 2, 2026.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 5-1
- Net units
- 1.45
- ROI
- 24.2%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Net units
- 0.00
- ROI
- —
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 6-2
- Net units
- 1.06
- ROI
- 13.3%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 6-1
- Net units
- 3.39
- ROI
- 48.4%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 2-1
- Net units
- 0.83
- ROI
- 27.6%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 9
- Record
- 6-3
- Net units
- 1.39
- ROI
- 15.4%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 2. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
95:17 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 85 / 83
- Fenwick for / against
- 64 / 59
- Corsi share
- 50.6%
- Fenwick share
- 52.0%
- xG for / against
- 3.69 / 3.31
Defense pair
123:37 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 154 / 103
- Fenwick for / against
- 114 / 80
- Corsi share
- 59.9%
- Fenwick share
- 58.8%
- xG for / against
- 7.27 / 4.55
Montréal Canadiens
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
89:23 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 107 / 48
- Fenwick for / against
- 75 / 38
- Corsi share
- 69.0%
- Fenwick share
- 66.4%
- xG for / against
- 5.82 / 1.98
Defense pair
113:21 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 167 / 83
- Fenwick for / against
- 132 / 61
- Corsi share
- 66.8%
- Fenwick share
- 68.4%
- xG for / against
- 8.36 / 4.82
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected starter unavailable.
Montréal Canadiens
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Dennis Hildeby
Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 24
3 / 3 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 78
- Save %
- 88.5
- Goals allowed
- 9
- Close-range shots %
- 35.9
Jacob Fowler
Montréal Canadiens · Last start: Oct 27
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 143
- Save %
- 94.4
- Goals allowed
- 8
- Close-range shots %
- 33.6
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 2, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Tampa Bay Lightning
- xG for / game
- 3.56
- xG against / game
- 2.79
- xG differential / game
- 0.77
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Montréal Canadiens
- xG for / game
- 3.40
- xG against / game
- 3.23
- xG differential / game
- 0.17
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 2, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 63.5
- Corsi share (%)
- 55.1
- Fenwick share (%)
- 55.6
- Faceoff win %
- 49.5
- Penalties / game
- 3.7
Shots / game: 31.1 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 32.4 ft
Montréal Canadiens
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 60.6
- Corsi share (%)
- 52.1
- Fenwick share (%)
- 52.7
- Faceoff win %
- 51.3
- Penalties / game
- 5.2
Shots / game: 28.7 · Shooting: 9.8% · Avg distance: 33.9 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
TBL
|
Metric |
MTL
|
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Points | 16 |
| 0.682 | Points % | 0.667 |
| 38 | Goals for | 38 |
| 34 | Goals against | 36 |
| 4 | Goal differential | 2 |
| OT1 | Current streak | W3 |
Road versus home
|
TBL road
|
Metric |
MTL home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 6 |
| 2 | Wins | 3 |
| 5 | Points | 7 |
| -5 | Goal differential | -3 |
Last 10 games
|
TBL
|
Metric |
MTL
|
|---|---|---|
| 7-2-1 | Record | 6-3-1 |
| 15 | Points | 13 |
| 37 | Goals for | 30 |
| 29 | Goals against | 28 |
| 8 | Goal differential | 2 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
TBL
6 wins
10
games reviewed
MTL
4 wins
Total goals37 – 32
Goal differential
+5
/
-5
Goals per game3.7 / 3.2
Shots per game26.7 / 29.1
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2026 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
1 - 2 | 18 - 21 | View |
| Mar 31, 2026 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
4 - 1 | 23 - 37 | View |
| Dec 28, 2025 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
4 - 5 | 36 - 22 | View |
| Dec 9, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
6 - 1 | 27 - 27 | View |
| Feb 9, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
5 - 3 | 21 - 35 | View |
| Jan 21, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
2 - 3 | 35 - 22 | View |
| Dec 29, 2024 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
5 - 2 | 37 - 23 | View |
| Apr 4, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
7 - 4 | 35 - 30 | View |
| Mar 2, 2024 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
3 - 4 | 31 - 29 | View |
| Dec 31, 2023 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
3 - 4 | 29 - 20 | View |