Forward trio
111:13 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 95 / 97
- Fenwick for / against
- 71 / 71
- Corsi share
- 49.5%
- Fenwick share
- 50.0%
- xG for / against
- 4.33 / 4.29
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Minnesota Wild prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 3, 2026
NHL matchup
Tampa Bay Lightning at Minnesota Wild
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 3, 2026.
March 3, 2026
· 8:30 PM CST
Model V2 prediction is not available yet for this game.
View final boxscore
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 3. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Defense pair
144:54 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 148 / 106
- Fenwick for / against
- 114 / 81
- Corsi share
- 58.3%
- Fenwick share
- 58.5%
- xG for / against
- 6.69 / 5.14
Minnesota Wild
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
127:27 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 137 / 131
- Fenwick for / against
- 106 / 93
- Corsi share
- 51.1%
- Fenwick share
- 53.3%
- xG for / against
- 6.28 / 6.84
Defense pair
185:46 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 200 / 181
- Fenwick for / against
- 147 / 132
- Corsi share
- 52.5%
- Fenwick share
- 52.7%
- xG for / against
- 10.71 / 9.09
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Feb 28
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 142
- Save %
- 88.7
- Goals allowed
- 16
- Close-range shots %
- 35.2
Filip Gustavsson
Minnesota Wild · Last start: Mar 1
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 153
- Save %
- 92.2
- Goals allowed
- 12
- Close-range shots %
- 22.2
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 3, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Tampa Bay Lightning
- xG for / game
- 3.68
- xG against / game
- 3.18
- xG differential / game
- 0.51
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Minnesota Wild
- xG for / game
- 3.29
- xG against / game
- 3.29
- xG differential / game
- 0.01
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 3, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 63.3
- Corsi share (%)
- 53.5
- Fenwick share (%)
- 54.2
- Faceoff win %
- 52.1
- Penalties / game
- 5.7
Shots / game: 33.8 · Shooting: 10.9% · Avg distance: 33.2 ft
Minnesota Wild
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 59.2
- Corsi share (%)
- 47.6
- Fenwick share (%)
- 47.9
- Faceoff win %
- 43.7
- Penalties / game
- 3.3
Shots / game: 28.5 · Shooting: 13.7% · Avg distance: 31.0 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
TBL
|
Metric |
MIN
|
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Points | 20 |
| 0.682 | Points % | 0.714 |
| 38 | Goals for | 44 |
| 34 | Goals against | 31 |
| 4 | Goal differential | 13 |
| OT1 | Current streak | W3 |
Road versus home
|
TBL road
|
Metric |
MIN home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 4 |
| 2 | Wins | 4 |
| 5 | Points | 8 |
| -5 | Goal differential | 7 |
Last 10 games
|
TBL
|
Metric |
MIN
|
|---|---|---|
| 7-2-1 | Record | 7-2-1 |
| 15 | Points | 15 |
| 37 | Goals for | 33 |
| 29 | Goals against | 23 |
| 8 | Goal differential | 10 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
TBL
4 wins
10
games reviewed
MIN
6 wins
Total goals34 – 36
Goal differential
-2
/
+2
Goals per game3.4 / 3.6
Shots per game30.6 / 27.7
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Minnesota Wild
|
3 - 5 | 30 - 22 | View |
| Oct 24, 2024 |
Minnesota Wild
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
4 - 2 | 18 - 26 | View |
| Jan 18, 2024 |
Minnesota Wild
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
3 - 7 | 33 - 38 | View |
| Jan 4, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Minnesota Wild
|
4 - 1 | 30 - 23 | View |
| Jan 24, 2023 |
Minnesota Wild
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
2 - 4 | 35 - 39 | View |
| Jan 4, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Minnesota Wild
|
1 - 5 | 35 - 33 | View |
| Nov 28, 2021 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Minnesota Wild
|
2 - 4 | 30 - 37 | View |
| Nov 21, 2021 |
Minnesota Wild
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
4 - 5 | 32 - 24 | View |
| Jan 16, 2020 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Minnesota Wild
|
2 - 3 | 20 - 23 | View |
| Dec 5, 2019 |
Minnesota Wild
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
5 - 4 | 21 - 34 | View |