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Tampa Bay Lightning vs Los Angeles Kings prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 3, 2027

NHL matchup

Tampa Bay Lightning at Los Angeles Kings

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 3, 2027.

March 3, 2027 · 9:00 PM CST
Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

7-3-1

57.4% Model pick
at
Home

Los Angeles Kings

3-5-2

42.6%
Model V2 pick: Tampa Bay Lightning at 57.4%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Away team

Tampa Bay Lightning

57.4%
Fair American -135
Fair decimal 1.74
Calculate value
Los Angeles Kings logo
Home team

Los Angeles Kings

42.6%
Fair American +135
Fair decimal 2.35
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Mar 3, 2027.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 3. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

123:37 together · 10 games

xG share61.5%
Corsi for / against
154 / 103
Fenwick for / against
114 / 80
Corsi share
59.9%
Fenwick share
58.8%
xG for / against
7.27 / 4.55
All observed combinations

Los Angeles Kings

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

82:34 together · 8 games

xG share64.8%
Corsi for / against
116 / 73
Fenwick for / against
79 / 47
Corsi share
61.4%
Fenwick share
62.7%
xG for / against
4.89 / 2.65
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Dennis Hildeby

Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 24

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
78
Save %
88.5
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
35.9

Darcy Kuemper

Los Angeles Kings · Last start: Oct 26

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
140
Save %
91.4
Goals allowed
12
Close-range shots %
30.0
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 3, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Tampa Bay Lightning

xG for / game
3.56
xG against / game
2.79
xG differential / game
0.77

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Los Angeles Kings

xG for / game
2.77
xG against / game
2.93
xG differential / game
-0.16

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 3, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
63.5
Corsi share (%)
55.1
Fenwick share (%)
55.6
Faceoff win %
49.5
Penalties / game
3.7

Shots / game: 31.1 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 32.4 ft

Los Angeles Kings

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
57.7
Corsi share (%)
49.7
Fenwick share (%)
50.1
Faceoff win %
49.9
Penalties / game
4.1

Shots / game: 27.1 · Shooting: 10.0% · Avg distance: 33.2 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Los Angeles Kings LAK
15Points8
0.682Points %0.400
38Goals for27
34Goals against35
4Goal differential-8
OT1Current streakW1
Road versus home
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL road
Metric
Los Angeles Kings LAK home
6Games3
2Wins0
5Points0
-5Goal differential-7
Last 10 games
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Los Angeles Kings LAK
7-2-1Record3-5-2
15Points8
37Goals for27
29Goals against35
8Goal differential-8
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 6 wins
10 games reviewed
Los Angeles Kings LAK 4 wins
Total goals32 – 25
Goal differential +7 / -7
Goals per game3.2 / 2.5
Shots per game28.1 / 26.1
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Jan 1, 2026
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Los Angeles Kings Los Angeles Kings
5 - 3 24 - 20 View
Dec 18, 2025
Los Angeles Kings Los Angeles Kings at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
2 - 1 20 - 32 View
Jan 30, 2025
Los Angeles Kings Los Angeles Kings at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
0 - 3 28 - 33 View
Jan 4, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Los Angeles Kings Los Angeles Kings
1 - 2 34 - 21 View
Mar 23, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Los Angeles Kings Los Angeles Kings
3 - 4 24 - 23 View
Jan 9, 2024
Los Angeles Kings Los Angeles Kings at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
2 - 3 22 - 29 View
Jan 28, 2023
Los Angeles Kings Los Angeles Kings at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
2 - 5 28 - 25 View
Oct 25, 2022
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Los Angeles Kings Los Angeles Kings
2 - 4 25 - 33 View
Jan 18, 2022
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Los Angeles Kings Los Angeles Kings
6 - 4 25 - 36 View
Dec 14, 2021
Los Angeles Kings Los Angeles Kings at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
2 - 3 30 - 30 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings TBL LAK