Away team
Tampa Bay Lightning
39.0%
Fair American
+156
Fair decimal
2.56
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Florida Panthers prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 28, 2026
NHL matchup
Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for November 28, 2026.
November 28, 2026
· 5:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Florida Panthers at 61.0%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Florida Panthers
61.0%
Fair American
-156
Fair decimal
1.64
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 28, 2026.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 5-1
- Net units
- 1.45
- ROI
- 24.2%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Net units
- 0.00
- ROI
- —
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 6-2
- Net units
- 1.06
- ROI
- 13.3%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 4
- Record
- 2-2
- Net units
- -1.10
- ROI
- -27.6%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 1
- Record
- 0-1
- Net units
- -1.00
- ROI
- -100.0%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 4-4
- Net units
- -1.71
- ROI
- -21.4%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 28. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
95:17 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 85 / 83
- Fenwick for / against
- 64 / 59
- Corsi share
- 50.6%
- Fenwick share
- 52.0%
- xG for / against
- 3.69 / 3.31
Defense pair
123:37 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 154 / 103
- Fenwick for / against
- 114 / 80
- Corsi share
- 59.9%
- Fenwick share
- 58.8%
- xG for / against
- 7.27 / 4.55
Florida Panthers
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
72:54 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 69 / 52
- Fenwick for / against
- 43 / 38
- Corsi share
- 57.0%
- Fenwick share
- 53.1%
- xG for / against
- 2.59 / 1.54
Defense pair
126:22 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 131 / 84
- Fenwick for / against
- 97 / 66
- Corsi share
- 60.9%
- Fenwick share
- 59.5%
- xG for / against
- 5.35 / 3.48
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected starter unavailable.
Florida Panthers
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Dennis Hildeby
Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 24
3 / 3 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 78
- Save %
- 88.5
- Goals allowed
- 9
- Close-range shots %
- 35.9
Akira Schmid
Florida Panthers · Last start: Oct 25
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 117
- Save %
- 87.2
- Goals allowed
- 15
- Close-range shots %
- 29.9
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 28, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Tampa Bay Lightning
- xG for / game
- 3.56
- xG against / game
- 2.79
- xG differential / game
- 0.77
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Florida Panthers
- xG for / game
- 3.41
- xG against / game
- 2.74
- xG differential / game
- 0.67
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 28, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 63.5
- Corsi share (%)
- 55.1
- Fenwick share (%)
- 55.6
- Faceoff win %
- 49.5
- Penalties / game
- 3.7
Shots / game: 31.1 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 32.4 ft
Florida Panthers
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 62.8
- Corsi share (%)
- 56.1
- Fenwick share (%)
- 54.5
- Faceoff win %
- 45.5
- Penalties / game
- 5.7
Shots / game: 29.7 · Shooting: 10.1% · Avg distance: 32.7 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
TBL
|
Metric |
FLA
|
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Points | 14 |
| 0.682 | Points % | 0.583 |
| 38 | Goals for | 34 |
| 34 | Goals against | 36 |
| 4 | Goal differential | -2 |
| OT1 | Current streak | W1 |
Road versus home
|
TBL road
|
Metric |
FLA home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 3 |
| 2 | Wins | 2 |
| 5 | Points | 4 |
| -5 | Goal differential | 3 |
Last 10 games
|
TBL
|
Metric |
FLA
|
|---|---|---|
| 7-2-1 | Record | 5-4-1 |
| 15 | Points | 11 |
| 37 | Goals for | 30 |
| 29 | Goals against | 32 |
| 8 | Goal differential | -2 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
TBL
6 wins
10
games reviewed
FLA
4 wins
Total goals34 – 28
Goal differential
+6
/
-6
Goals per game3.4 / 2.8
Shots per game25.7 / 30.2
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2026 |
Florida Panthers
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
1 - 6 | 34 - 28 | View |
| Dec 27, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Florida Panthers
|
4 - 2 | 25 - 26 | View |
| Dec 15, 2025 |
Florida Panthers
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
5 - 2 | 24 - 28 | View |
| Nov 15, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Florida Panthers
|
3 - 1 | 20 - 23 | View |
| Apr 15, 2025 |
Florida Panthers
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
1 - 5 | 24 - 31 | View |
| Mar 3, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Florida Panthers
|
1 - 2 | 29 - 29 | View |
| Dec 23, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Florida Panthers
|
4 - 0 | 29 - 36 | View |
| Dec 22, 2024 |
Florida Panthers
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
4 - 2 | 26 - 21 | View |
| Mar 16, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Florida Panthers
|
5 - 3 | 16 - 50 | View |
| Feb 17, 2024 |
Florida Panthers
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
9 - 2 | 30 - 30 | View |