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Tampa Bay Lightning vs Detroit Red Wings prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 20, 2026

NHL matchup

Tampa Bay Lightning at Detroit Red Wings

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 20, 2026.

December 20, 2026 · 4:00 PM CST
Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

7-3-1

49.5%
at
Home

Detroit Red Wings

5-4-3

50.5% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Detroit Red Wings at 50.5%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Away team

Tampa Bay Lightning

49.5%
Fair American +102
Fair decimal 2.02
Calculate value
Detroit Red Wings logo
Home team

Detroit Red Wings

50.5%
Fair American -102
Fair decimal 1.98
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 20, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 20. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

123:37 together · 10 games

xG share61.5%
Corsi for / against
154 / 103
Fenwick for / against
114 / 80
Corsi share
59.9%
Fenwick share
58.8%
xG for / against
7.27 / 4.55
All observed combinations

Detroit Red Wings

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

112:48 together · 10 games

xG share51.4%
Corsi for / against
115 / 99
Fenwick for / against
80 / 60
Corsi share
53.7%
Fenwick share
57.1%
xG for / against
3.84 / 3.62
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Dennis Hildeby

Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 24

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
78
Save %
88.5
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
35.9

Michal Postava

Detroit Red Wings · Last start: Oct 26

2 / 2 appearances covered

Shots faced
35
Save %
88.6
Goals allowed
4
Close-range shots %
28.6
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 20, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Tampa Bay Lightning

xG for / game
3.56
xG against / game
2.79
xG differential / game
0.77

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Detroit Red Wings

xG for / game
3.35
xG against / game
3.16
xG differential / game
0.19

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 20, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
63.5
Corsi share (%)
55.1
Fenwick share (%)
55.6
Faceoff win %
49.5
Penalties / game
3.7

Shots / game: 31.1 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 32.4 ft

Detroit Red Wings

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
62.5
Corsi share (%)
52.2
Fenwick share (%)
52.8
Faceoff win %
49.0
Penalties / game
4.2

Shots / game: 29.9 · Shooting: 9.7% · Avg distance: 32.7 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Detroit Red Wings DET
15Points13
0.682Points %0.542
38Goals for33
34Goals against37
4Goal differential-4
OT1Current streakW1
Road versus home
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL road
Metric
Detroit Red Wings DET home
6Games7
2Wins3
5Points7
-5Goal differential-3
Last 10 games
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Detroit Red Wings DET
7-2-1Record5-2-3
15Points13
37Goals for31
29Goals against32
8Goal differential-1
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 5 wins
10 games reviewed
Detroit Red Wings DET 5 wins
Total goals32 – 25
Goal differential +7 / -7
Goals per game3.2 / 2.5
Shots per game26.3 / 32.3
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Apr 13, 2026
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 4 30 - 22 View
Mar 12, 2026
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 4 25 - 28 View
Nov 28, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
6 - 3 28 - 36 View
Oct 17, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
1 - 2 32 - 31 View
Apr 11, 2025
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 3 26 - 21 View
Feb 8, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
6 - 3 18 - 37 View
Jan 25, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
0 - 2 28 - 32 View
Jan 18, 2025
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 5 39 - 22 View
Apr 1, 2024
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 2 32 - 36 View
Jan 21, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
1 - 2 28 - 35 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings TBL DET