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Tampa Bay Lightning vs Dallas Stars prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for February 25, 2027

NHL matchup

Tampa Bay Lightning at Dallas Stars

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for February 25, 2027.

February 25, 2027 · 7:00 PM CST
Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

7-3-1

50.4% Model pick
at
Home

Dallas Stars

7-3-1

49.6%
Model V2 pick: Tampa Bay Lightning at 50.4%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Away team

Tampa Bay Lightning

50.4%
Fair American -102
Fair decimal 1.98
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Feb 25, 2027.

Dallas Stars

All Model Picks

Bets
3
Record
2-1
Net units
0.09
ROI
3.1%

Value Picks

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Net units
0.00
ROI
—

Market Favourite

Bets
9
Record
6-3
Net units
0.55
ROI
6.1%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 25. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

123:37 together · 10 games

xG share61.5%
Corsi for / against
154 / 103
Fenwick for / against
114 / 80
Corsi share
59.9%
Fenwick share
58.8%
xG for / against
7.27 / 4.55
All observed combinations

Dallas Stars

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

52:30 together · 7 games

xG share74.6%
Corsi for / against
52 / 43
Fenwick for / against
36 / 23
Corsi share
54.7%
Fenwick share
61.0%
xG for / against
2.76 / 0.94
Defense pair

96:24 together · 10 games

xG share58.8%
Corsi for / against
99 / 73
Fenwick for / against
66 / 48
Corsi share
57.6%
Fenwick share
57.9%
xG for / against
3.83 / 2.68
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Dennis Hildeby

Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 24

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
78
Save %
88.5
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
35.9

Jake Oettinger

Dallas Stars · Last start: Oct 25

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
103
Save %
90.3
Goals allowed
10
Close-range shots %
34.0
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 25, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Tampa Bay Lightning

xG for / game
3.56
xG against / game
2.79
xG differential / game
0.77

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Dallas Stars

xG for / game
3.33
xG against / game
2.56
xG differential / game
0.77

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 25, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
63.5
Corsi share (%)
55.1
Fenwick share (%)
55.6
Faceoff win %
49.5
Penalties / game
3.7

Shots / game: 31.1 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 32.4 ft

Dallas Stars

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
58.0
Corsi share (%)
53.6
Fenwick share (%)
54.7
Faceoff win %
55.7
Penalties / game
4.0

Shots / game: 28.0 · Shooting: 11.1% · Avg distance: 31.0 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Dallas Stars DAL
15Points15
0.682Points %0.682
38Goals for32
34Goals against20
4Goal differential12
OT1Current streakW5
Road versus home
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL road
Metric
Dallas Stars DAL home
6Games6
2Wins4
5Points8
-5Goal differential5
Last 10 games
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Dallas Stars DAL
7-2-1Record7-2-1
15Points15
37Goals for32
29Goals against16
8Goal differential16
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 7 wins
10 games reviewed
Dallas Stars DAL 3 wins
Total goals27 – 23
Goal differential +4 / -4
Goals per game2.7 / 2.3
Shots per game30.5 / 26.2
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Jan 18, 2026
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
4 - 1 26 - 20 View
Oct 30, 2025
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 2 21 - 33 View
Mar 20, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
3 - 2 38 - 24 View
Nov 23, 2024
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 2 28 - 29 View
Dec 4, 2023
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
0 - 4 25 - 23 View
Dec 2, 2023
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
1 - 8 33 - 34 View
Feb 11, 2023
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
3 - 1 31 - 29 View
Nov 15, 2022
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 5 32 - 38 View
Apr 12, 2022
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
0 - 1 25 - 29 View
Jan 15, 2022
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 3 20 - 29 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
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