Forward trio
110:00 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 104 / 83
- Fenwick for / against
- 66 / 59
- Corsi share
- 55.6%
- Fenwick share
- 52.8%
- xG for / against
- 4.96 / 2.75
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Dallas Stars prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 18, 2026
NHL matchup
Tampa Bay Lightning at Dallas Stars
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for January 18, 2026.
January 18, 2026
· 1:00 PM CST
Model V2 prediction is not available yet for this game.
View final boxscore
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 18. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Defense pair
142:52 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 159 / 104
- Fenwick for / against
- 114 / 78
- Corsi share
- 60.5%
- Fenwick share
- 59.4%
- xG for / against
- 6.40 / 4.93
Dallas Stars
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
89:01 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 94 / 66
- Fenwick for / against
- 68 / 53
- Corsi share
- 58.8%
- Fenwick share
- 56.2%
- xG for / against
- 4.58 / 2.67
Defense pair
108:59 together · 8 games
- Corsi for / against
- 76 / 73
- Fenwick for / against
- 50 / 47
- Corsi share
- 51.0%
- Fenwick share
- 51.5%
- xG for / against
- 4.17 / 3.44
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Jan 16
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 123
- Save %
- 91.9
- Goals allowed
- 10
- Close-range shots %
- 30.9
Jake Oettinger
Dallas Stars · Last start: Jan 15
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 116
- Save %
- 86.2
- Goals allowed
- 16
- Close-range shots %
- 25.0
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 18, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Tampa Bay Lightning
- xG for / game
- 3.47
- xG against / game
- 3.25
- xG differential / game
- 0.22
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Dallas Stars
- xG for / game
- 3.28
- xG against / game
- 3.15
- xG differential / game
- 0.13
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 18, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 57.6
- Corsi share (%)
- 50.8
- Fenwick share (%)
- 50.2
- Faceoff win %
- 44.2
- Penalties / game
- 7.2
Shots / game: 26.9 · Shooting: 16.0% · Avg distance: 32.6 ft
Dallas Stars
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 52.3
- Corsi share (%)
- 47.2
- Fenwick share (%)
- 46.7
- Faceoff win %
- 48.3
- Penalties / game
- 3.6
Shots / game: 26.2 · Shooting: 9.9% · Avg distance: 31.9 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
TBL
|
Metric |
DAL
|
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Points | 15 |
| 0.682 | Points % | 0.682 |
| 38 | Goals for | 32 |
| 34 | Goals against | 20 |
| 4 | Goal differential | 12 |
| OT1 | Current streak | W5 |
Road versus home
|
TBL road
|
Metric |
DAL home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 6 |
| 2 | Wins | 4 |
| 5 | Points | 8 |
| -5 | Goal differential | 5 |
Last 10 games
|
TBL
|
Metric |
DAL
|
|---|---|---|
| 7-2-1 | Record | 7-2-1 |
| 15 | Points | 15 |
| 37 | Goals for | 32 |
| 29 | Goals against | 16 |
| 8 | Goal differential | 16 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
TBL
6 wins
10
games reviewed
DAL
4 wins
Total goals25 – 27
Goal differential
-2
/
+2
Goals per game2.5 / 2.7
Shots per game30.6 / 27.3
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2025 |
Dallas Stars
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
1 - 2 | 21 - 33 | View |
| Mar 20, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Dallas Stars
|
3 - 2 | 38 - 24 | View |
| Nov 23, 2024 |
Dallas Stars
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
4 - 2 | 28 - 29 | View |
| Dec 4, 2023 |
Dallas Stars
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
0 - 4 | 25 - 23 | View |
| Dec 2, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Dallas Stars
|
1 - 8 | 33 - 34 | View |
| Feb 11, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Dallas Stars
|
3 - 1 | 31 - 29 | View |
| Nov 15, 2022 |
Dallas Stars
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
4 - 5 | 32 - 38 | View |
| Apr 12, 2022 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Dallas Stars
|
0 - 1 | 25 - 29 | View |
| Jan 15, 2022 |
Dallas Stars
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
1 - 3 | 20 - 29 | View |
| May 7, 2021 |
Dallas Stars
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
5 - 2 | 31 - 27 | View |