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Tampa Bay Lightning vs Colorado Avalanche prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 23, 2026

NHL matchup

Tampa Bay Lightning at Colorado Avalanche

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 23, 2026.

October 23, 2026 · 8:00 PM CST
Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

7-3-1

3
Final
Home

Colorado Avalanche

7-5-1

6 Model pick
Model V2 pick: Colorado Avalanche at 62.4% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Away team

Tampa Bay Lightning

37.6%
Fair American +166
Fair decimal 2.66
Best market +112 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 47.2%
Edge -9.6%
Expected value -20.3%
Calculate value
Colorado Avalanche logo
Home team

Colorado Avalanche

62.4%
Fair American -166
Fair decimal 1.6
Best market -125 · BetUS
Market implied 55.6%
Edge +6.8%
Expected value +12.3%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 23, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 23. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Tampa Bay Lightning

9 / 9 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

108:43 together · 9 games

xG share62.8%
Corsi for / against
139 / 91
Fenwick for / against
103 / 68
Corsi share
60.4%
Fenwick share
60.2%
xG for / against
6.96 / 4.13
All observed combinations

Colorado Avalanche

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

100:23 together · 9 games

xG share59.5%
Corsi for / against
125 / 97
Fenwick for / against
89 / 71
Corsi share
56.3%
Fenwick share
55.6%
xG for / against
5.69 / 3.87
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Andrei Vasilevskiy 72.8%
Other eligible goalies

Why Andrei Vasilevskiy?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+1.180
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.532
Days since last start
+0.446
Team win pct before
-0.393
Started last game
-0.296
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 23, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Colorado Avalanche

Mackenzie Blackwood 88.3%
Other eligible goalies

Why Mackenzie Blackwood?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+1.030
Rolling 5 game avg save pct
-0.297
Started last game
+0.290
Days since last start
+0.277
Prev save pct
-0.237
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 23, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Andrei Vasilevskiy

Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 20

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
121
Save %
90.1
Goals allowed
12
Close-range shots %
34.7

Scott Wedgewood

Colorado Avalanche · Last start: Oct 20

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
91
Save %
91.2
Goals allowed
8
Close-range shots %
24.2
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 23, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Tampa Bay Lightning

xG for / game
3.34
xG against / game
2.67
xG differential / game
0.67

9 / 9 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Colorado Avalanche

xG for / game
3.33
xG against / game
2.64
xG differential / game
0.69

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 23, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Tampa Bay Lightning

9 / 9 games covered

Attempts / game
62.6
Corsi share (%)
54.9
Fenwick share (%)
55.4
Faceoff win %
48.5
Penalties / game
3.56

Shots / game: 29.8 · Shooting: 11.6% · Avg distance: 31.1 ft

Colorado Avalanche

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
64.1
Corsi share (%)
53.3
Fenwick share (%)
53.3
Faceoff win %
47.8
Penalties / game
3.0

Shots / game: 30.6 · Shooting: 13.4% · Avg distance: 32.8 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Colorado Avalanche COL
15Points15
0.682Points %0.577
38Goals for54
34Goals against42
4Goal differential12
OT1Current streakW1
Road versus home
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL road
Metric
Colorado Avalanche COL home
6Games7
2Wins5
5Points11
-5Goal differential14
Last 10 games
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Colorado Avalanche COL
7-2-1Record5-4-1
15Points11
37Goals for38
29Goals against34
8Goal differential4
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 6 wins
10 games reviewed
Colorado Avalanche COL 4 wins
Total goals40 – 26
Goal differential +14 / -14
Goals per game4.0 / 2.6
Shots per game32.1 / 33.0
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Jan 6, 2026
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
2 - 4 33 - 28 View
Nov 4, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
2 - 3 24 - 33 View
Nov 25, 2024
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
2 - 8 25 - 33 View
Oct 30, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
5 - 2 21 - 35 View
Feb 15, 2024
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 6 31 - 39 View
Nov 27, 2023
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
1 - 4 39 - 23 View
Feb 14, 2023
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
4 - 3 35 - 46 View
Feb 9, 2023
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
0 - 5 30 - 32 View
Feb 10, 2022
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
2 - 3 38 - 47 View
Oct 23, 2021
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 3 27 - 32 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings TBL COL