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Tampa Bay Lightning vs Chicago Blackhawks prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 8, 2027

NHL matchup

Tampa Bay Lightning at Chicago Blackhawks

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 8, 2027.

March 8, 2027 · 7:00 PM CST
Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

7-3-1

55.7% Model pick
at
Home

Chicago Blackhawks

4-8-0

44.3%
Model V2 pick: Tampa Bay Lightning at 55.7%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Away team

Tampa Bay Lightning

55.7%
Fair American -126
Fair decimal 1.8
Calculate value
Chicago Blackhawks logo
Home team

Chicago Blackhawks

44.3%
Fair American +126
Fair decimal 2.26
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Mar 8, 2027.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 8. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

123:37 together · 10 games

xG share61.5%
Corsi for / against
154 / 103
Fenwick for / against
114 / 80
Corsi share
59.9%
Fenwick share
58.8%
xG for / against
7.27 / 4.55
All observed combinations

Chicago Blackhawks

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

66:26 together · 9 games

xG share54.8%
Corsi for / against
40 / 56
Fenwick for / against
32 / 40
Corsi share
41.7%
Fenwick share
44.4%
xG for / against
2.67 / 2.20
Defense pair

121:03 together · 10 games

xG share41.1%
Corsi for / against
69 / 113
Fenwick for / against
56 / 85
Corsi share
37.9%
Fenwick share
39.7%
xG for / against
3.65 / 5.24
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Dennis Hildeby

Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 24

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
78
Save %
88.5
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
35.9

Spencer Knight

Chicago Blackhawks · Last start: Oct 27

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
153
Save %
90.8
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
42.5
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 8, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Tampa Bay Lightning

xG for / game
3.56
xG against / game
2.79
xG differential / game
0.77

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Chicago Blackhawks

xG for / game
2.60
xG against / game
3.39
xG differential / game
-0.79

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 8, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
63.5
Corsi share (%)
55.1
Fenwick share (%)
55.6
Faceoff win %
49.5
Penalties / game
3.7

Shots / game: 31.1 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 32.4 ft

Chicago Blackhawks

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
47.9
Corsi share (%)
44.9
Fenwick share (%)
44.0
Faceoff win %
44.0
Penalties / game
3.5

Shots / game: 22.1 · Shooting: 10.9% · Avg distance: 30.5 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Chicago Blackhawks CHI
15Points8
0.682Points %0.333
38Goals for26
34Goals against44
4Goal differential-18
OT1Current streakW1
Road versus home
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL road
Metric
Chicago Blackhawks CHI home
6Games8
2Wins4
5Points8
-5Goal differential-5
Last 10 games
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Chicago Blackhawks CHI
7-2-1Record4-6-0
15Points8
37Goals for24
29Goals against33
8Goal differential-9
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 7 wins
10 games reviewed
Chicago Blackhawks CHI 3 wins
Total goals34 – 25
Goal differential +9 / -9
Goals per game3.4 / 2.5
Shots per game34.3 / 22.0
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Jan 23, 2026
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks
2 - 1 31 - 18 View
Oct 23, 2025
Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 2 25 - 31 View
Jan 28, 2025
Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 1 21 - 35 View
Jan 24, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks
4 - 3 40 - 14 View
Nov 16, 2023
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks
4 - 2 32 - 14 View
Nov 9, 2023
Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
5 - 3 29 - 33 View
Mar 11, 2023
Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 3 23 - 37 View
Jan 3, 2023
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks
4 - 1 29 - 26 View
Apr 1, 2022
Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
2 - 5 23 - 43 View
Mar 6, 2022
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks
6 - 3 32 - 27 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings TBL CHI