Forward trio
114:47 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 108 / 88
- Fenwick for / against
- 70 / 63
- Corsi share
- 55.1%
- Fenwick share
- 52.6%
- xG for / against
- 4.64 / 3.03
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Chicago Blackhawks prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 23, 2026
NHL matchup
Tampa Bay Lightning at Chicago Blackhawks
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for January 23, 2026.
January 23, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 prediction is not available yet for this game.
View final boxscore
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 23. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Defense pair
151:11 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 178 / 109
- Fenwick for / against
- 126 / 79
- Corsi share
- 62.0%
- Fenwick share
- 61.5%
- xG for / against
- 6.86 / 5.69
Chicago Blackhawks
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
55:25 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 46 / 51
- Fenwick for / against
- 31 / 37
- Corsi share
- 47.4%
- Fenwick share
- 45.6%
- xG for / against
- 1.52 / 2.11
Defense pair
136:52 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 110 / 126
- Fenwick for / against
- 75 / 99
- Corsi share
- 46.6%
- Fenwick share
- 43.1%
- xG for / against
- 4.40 / 6.39
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Jan 20
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 111
- Save %
- 93.7
- Goals allowed
- 7
- Close-range shots %
- 25.2
Spencer Knight
Chicago Blackhawks · Last start: Jan 22
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 151
- Save %
- 92.7
- Goals allowed
- 11
- Close-range shots %
- 43.7
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 23, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Tampa Bay Lightning
- xG for / game
- 3.44
- xG against / game
- 2.73
- xG differential / game
- 0.71
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Chicago Blackhawks
- xG for / game
- 2.71
- xG against / game
- 3.23
- xG differential / game
- -0.51
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 23, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 60.7
- Corsi share (%)
- 55.2
- Fenwick share (%)
- 54.7
- Faceoff win %
- 44.2
- Penalties / game
- 4.5
Shots / game: 26.9 · Shooting: 16.0% · Avg distance: 32.2 ft
Chicago Blackhawks
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 52.2
- Corsi share (%)
- 47.7
- Fenwick share (%)
- 47.1
- Faceoff win %
- 50.0
- Penalties / game
- 3.3
Shots / game: 25.6 · Shooting: 9.8% · Avg distance: 32.9 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
TBL
|
Metric |
CHI
|
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Points | 8 |
| 0.682 | Points % | 0.333 |
| 38 | Goals for | 26 |
| 34 | Goals against | 44 |
| 4 | Goal differential | -18 |
| OT1 | Current streak | W1 |
Road versus home
|
TBL road
|
Metric |
CHI home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 8 |
| 2 | Wins | 4 |
| 5 | Points | 8 |
| -5 | Goal differential | -5 |
Last 10 games
|
TBL
|
Metric |
CHI
|
|---|---|---|
| 7-2-1 | Record | 4-6-0 |
| 15 | Points | 8 |
| 37 | Goals for | 24 |
| 29 | Goals against | 33 |
| 8 | Goal differential | -9 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
TBL
7 wins
10
games reviewed
CHI
3 wins
Total goals39 – 28
Goal differential
+11
/
-11
Goals per game3.9 / 2.8
Shots per game34.2 / 24.2
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2025 |
Chicago Blackhawks
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
3 - 2 | 25 - 31 | View |
| Jan 28, 2025 |
Chicago Blackhawks
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
4 - 1 | 21 - 35 | View |
| Jan 24, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Chicago Blackhawks
|
4 - 3 | 40 - 14 | View |
| Nov 16, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Chicago Blackhawks
|
4 - 2 | 32 - 14 | View |
| Nov 9, 2023 |
Chicago Blackhawks
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
5 - 3 | 29 - 33 | View |
| Mar 11, 2023 |
Chicago Blackhawks
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
1 - 3 | 23 - 37 | View |
| Jan 3, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Chicago Blackhawks
|
4 - 1 | 29 - 26 | View |
| Apr 1, 2022 |
Chicago Blackhawks
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
2 - 5 | 23 - 43 | View |
| Mar 6, 2022 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Chicago Blackhawks
|
6 - 3 | 32 - 27 | View |
| Apr 27, 2021 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Chicago Blackhawks
|
7 - 4 | 30 - 40 | View |