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Tampa Bay Lightning vs Carolina Hurricanes prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for February 27, 2027

NHL matchup

Tampa Bay Lightning at Carolina Hurricanes

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for February 27, 2027.

February 27, 2027 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

7-3-1

48.0%
at
Home

Carolina Hurricanes

10-2-2

52.0% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Carolina Hurricanes at 52.0%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Away team

Tampa Bay Lightning

48.0%
Fair American +108
Fair decimal 2.08
Calculate value
Carolina Hurricanes logo
Home team

Carolina Hurricanes

52.0%
Fair American -108
Fair decimal 1.92
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Feb 27, 2027.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 27. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

123:37 together · 10 games

xG share61.5%
Corsi for / against
154 / 103
Fenwick for / against
114 / 80
Corsi share
59.9%
Fenwick share
58.8%
xG for / against
7.27 / 4.55
All observed combinations

Carolina Hurricanes

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

164:37 together · 10 games

xG share57.3%
Corsi for / against
176 / 119
Fenwick for / against
130 / 81
Corsi share
59.7%
Fenwick share
61.6%
xG for / against
8.35 / 6.22
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Dennis Hildeby

Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 24

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
78
Save %
88.5
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
35.9

Pyotr Kochetkov

Carolina Hurricanes · Last start: Oct 27

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
101
Save %
92.1
Goals allowed
8
Close-range shots %
40.6
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 27, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Tampa Bay Lightning

xG for / game
3.56
xG against / game
2.79
xG differential / game
0.77

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Carolina Hurricanes

xG for / game
3.95
xG against / game
2.37
xG differential / game
1.58

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 27, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
63.5
Corsi share (%)
55.1
Fenwick share (%)
55.6
Faceoff win %
49.5
Penalties / game
3.7

Shots / game: 31.1 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 32.4 ft

Carolina Hurricanes

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
67.5
Corsi share (%)
59.2
Fenwick share (%)
60.9
Faceoff win %
49.3
Penalties / game
3.3

Shots / game: 35.0 · Shooting: 12.0% · Avg distance: 31.0 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Carolina Hurricanes CAR
15Points22
0.682Points %0.786
38Goals for53
34Goals against34
4Goal differential19
OT1Current streakW2
Road versus home
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL road
Metric
Carolina Hurricanes CAR home
6Games5
2Wins3
5Points7
-5Goal differential4
Last 10 games
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Carolina Hurricanes CAR
7-2-1Record8-1-1
15Points17
37Goals for42
29Goals against22
8Goal differential20
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 6 wins
10 games reviewed
Carolina Hurricanes CAR 4 wins
Total goals35 – 26
Goal differential +9 / -9
Goals per game3.5 / 2.6
Shots per game23.6 / 29.2
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 14, 2026
Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 2 35 - 19 View
Feb 26, 2026
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes
4 - 5 28 - 33 View
Dec 20, 2025
Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 6 22 - 29 View
Mar 11, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes
1 - 4 24 - 31 View
Jan 7, 2025
Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
2 - 3 31 - 33 View
Oct 11, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes
4 - 1 23 - 21 View
Nov 24, 2023
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes
8 - 2 14 - 24 View
Nov 11, 2023
Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 0 32 - 22 View
Oct 24, 2023
Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
0 - 3 32 - 23 View
Mar 28, 2023
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes
4 - 0 21 - 31 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings TBL CAR