Forward trio
115:24 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 101 / 94
- Fenwick for / against
- 78 / 65
- Corsi share
- 51.8%
- Fenwick share
- 54.5%
- xG for / against
- 4.47 / 3.94
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Carolina Hurricanes prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for February 26, 2026
NHL matchup
Tampa Bay Lightning at Carolina Hurricanes
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for February 26, 2026.
February 26, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 prediction is not available yet for this game.
View final boxscore
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 26. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Defense pair
148:15 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 166 / 118
- Fenwick for / against
- 127 / 85
- Corsi share
- 58.5%
- Fenwick share
- 59.9%
- xG for / against
- 7.62 / 6.48
Carolina Hurricanes
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
106:26 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 116 / 80
- Fenwick for / against
- 84 / 65
- Corsi share
- 59.2%
- Fenwick share
- 56.4%
- xG for / against
- 5.69 / 5.62
Defense pair
163:21 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 180 / 122
- Fenwick for / against
- 121 / 87
- Corsi share
- 59.6%
- Fenwick share
- 58.2%
- xG for / against
- 7.43 / 6.69
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Feb 25
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 152
- Save %
- 92.1
- Goals allowed
- 12
- Close-range shots %
- 29.6
Brandon Bussi
Carolina Hurricanes · Last start: Feb 5
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 118
- Save %
- 91.5
- Goals allowed
- 10
- Close-range shots %
- 37.3
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 26, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Tampa Bay Lightning
- xG for / game
- 3.57
- xG against / game
- 2.89
- xG differential / game
- 0.69
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Carolina Hurricanes
- xG for / game
- 3.62
- xG against / game
- 2.89
- xG differential / game
- 0.73
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 26, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 63.3
- Corsi share (%)
- 54.9
- Fenwick share (%)
- 56.2
- Faceoff win %
- 49.9
- Penalties / game
- 4.9
Shots / game: 31.8 · Shooting: 12.3% · Avg distance: 32.9 ft
Carolina Hurricanes
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 63.7
- Corsi share (%)
- 57.1
- Fenwick share (%)
- 55.7
- Faceoff win %
- 52.3
- Penalties / game
- 3.8
Shots / game: 30.1 · Shooting: 13.0% · Avg distance: 34.0 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
TBL
|
Metric |
CAR
|
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Points | 22 |
| 0.682 | Points % | 0.786 |
| 38 | Goals for | 53 |
| 34 | Goals against | 34 |
| 4 | Goal differential | 19 |
| OT1 | Current streak | W2 |
Road versus home
|
TBL road
|
Metric |
CAR home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 5 |
| 2 | Wins | 3 |
| 5 | Points | 7 |
| -5 | Goal differential | 4 |
Last 10 games
|
TBL
|
Metric |
CAR
|
|---|---|---|
| 7-2-1 | Record | 8-1-1 |
| 15 | Points | 17 |
| 37 | Goals for | 42 |
| 29 | Goals against | 22 |
| 8 | Goal differential | 20 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
TBL
6 wins
10
games reviewed
CAR
4 wins
Total goals32 – 27
Goal differential
+5
/
-5
Goals per game3.2 / 2.7
Shots per game22.9 / 31.7
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 |
Carolina Hurricanes
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
4 - 6 | 22 - 29 | View |
| Mar 11, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Carolina Hurricanes
|
1 - 4 | 24 - 31 | View |
| Jan 7, 2025 |
Carolina Hurricanes
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
2 - 3 | 31 - 33 | View |
| Oct 11, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Carolina Hurricanes
|
4 - 1 | 23 - 21 | View |
| Nov 24, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Carolina Hurricanes
|
8 - 2 | 14 - 24 | View |
| Nov 11, 2023 |
Carolina Hurricanes
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
4 - 0 | 32 - 22 | View |
| Oct 24, 2023 |
Carolina Hurricanes
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
0 - 3 | 32 - 23 | View |
| Mar 28, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Carolina Hurricanes
|
4 - 0 | 21 - 31 | View |
| Mar 5, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Carolina Hurricanes
|
0 - 6 | 14 - 38 | View |
| Nov 3, 2022 |
Carolina Hurricanes
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
4 - 3 | 55 - 26 | View |