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Tampa Bay Lightning vs Buffalo Sabres prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for April 5, 2027

NHL matchup

Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for April 5, 2027.

April 5, 2027 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

7-3-1

58.4% Model pick
at
Home

Buffalo Sabres

4-4-3

41.6%
Model V2 pick: Tampa Bay Lightning at 58.4%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Away team

Tampa Bay Lightning

58.4%
Fair American -140
Fair decimal 1.71
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Apr 5, 2027.

Buffalo Sabres

All Model Picks

Bets
7
Record
3-4
Net units
-1.66
ROI
-23.7%

Value Picks

Bets
6
Record
1-5
Net units
-4.07
ROI
-67.8%

Market Favourite

Bets
4
Record
2-2
Net units
-0.62
ROI
-15.6%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Apr 5. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

123:37 together · 10 games

xG share61.5%
Corsi for / against
154 / 103
Fenwick for / against
114 / 80
Corsi share
59.9%
Fenwick share
58.8%
xG for / against
7.27 / 4.55
All observed combinations

Buffalo Sabres

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

103:15 together · 10 games

xG share69.8%
Corsi for / against
117 / 54
Fenwick for / against
81 / 41
Corsi share
68.4%
Fenwick share
66.4%
xG for / against
6.30 / 2.72
Defense pair

81:19 together · 7 games

xG share52.5%
Corsi for / against
72 / 59
Fenwick for / against
50 / 42
Corsi share
55.0%
Fenwick share
54.3%
xG for / against
3.23 / 2.92
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Dennis Hildeby

Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 24

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
78
Save %
88.5
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
35.9

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Buffalo Sabres · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
163
Save %
89.0
Goals allowed
18
Close-range shots %
40.5
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Apr 5, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Tampa Bay Lightning

xG for / game
3.56
xG against / game
2.79
xG differential / game
0.77

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Buffalo Sabres

xG for / game
3.20
xG against / game
3.55
xG differential / game
-0.35

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Apr 5, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
63.5
Corsi share (%)
55.1
Fenwick share (%)
55.6
Faceoff win %
49.5
Penalties / game
3.7

Shots / game: 31.1 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 32.4 ft

Buffalo Sabres

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
56.8
Corsi share (%)
51.0
Fenwick share (%)
49.5
Faceoff win %
48.2
Penalties / game
4.2

Shots / game: 26.4 · Shooting: 10.6% · Avg distance: 30.6 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Buffalo Sabres BUF
15Points11
0.682Points %0.500
38Goals for31
34Goals against41
4Goal differential-10
OT1Current streakOT1
Road versus home
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL road
Metric
Buffalo Sabres BUF home
6Games6
2Wins3
5Points6
-5Goal differential-5
Last 10 games
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Buffalo Sabres BUF
7-2-1Record4-3-3
15Points11
37Goals for28
29Goals against35
8Goal differential-7
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 4 wins
10 games reviewed
Buffalo Sabres BUF 6 wins
Total goals37 – 41
Goal differential -4 / +4
Goals per game3.7 / 4.1
Shots per game27.9 / 31.2
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Apr 6, 2026
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
2 - 4 25 - 29 View
Mar 8, 2026
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
7 - 8 28 - 42 View
Feb 28, 2026
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
6 - 2 35 - 38 View
Feb 3, 2026
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 4 26 - 35 View
Apr 13, 2025
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 7 25 - 31 View
Apr 5, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
2 - 3 24 - 38 View
Mar 6, 2025
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
5 - 6 33 - 26 View
Apr 15, 2024
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 2 34 - 33 View
Feb 29, 2024
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 2 23 - 23 View
Jan 20, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
3 - 1 16 - 27 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
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