Away team
Tampa Bay Lightning
56.2%
Fair American
-128
Fair decimal
1.78
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Buffalo Sabres prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 11, 2026
NHL matchup
Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for November 11, 2026.
November 11, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Tampa Bay Lightning at 56.2%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Buffalo Sabres
43.8%
Fair American
+128
Fair decimal
2.28
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 11, 2026.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 5-1
- Net units
- 1.45
- ROI
- 24.2%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Net units
- 0.00
- ROI
- —
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 6-2
- Net units
- 1.06
- ROI
- 13.3%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 3-4
- Net units
- -1.66
- ROI
- -23.7%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 1-5
- Net units
- -4.07
- ROI
- -67.8%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 5
- Record
- 3-2
- Net units
- 0.10
- ROI
- 2.0%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 11. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
95:17 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 85 / 83
- Fenwick for / against
- 64 / 59
- Corsi share
- 50.6%
- Fenwick share
- 52.0%
- xG for / against
- 3.69 / 3.31
Defense pair
123:37 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 154 / 103
- Fenwick for / against
- 114 / 80
- Corsi share
- 59.9%
- Fenwick share
- 58.8%
- xG for / against
- 7.27 / 4.55
Buffalo Sabres
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
89:52 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 94 / 46
- Fenwick for / against
- 62 / 34
- Corsi share
- 67.1%
- Fenwick share
- 64.6%
- xG for / against
- 5.12 / 2.16
Defense pair
82:50 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 70 / 73
- Fenwick for / against
- 48 / 49
- Corsi share
- 49.0%
- Fenwick share
- 49.5%
- xG for / against
- 3.17 / 3.45
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected starter unavailable.
Buffalo Sabres
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Dennis Hildeby
Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 24
3 / 3 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 78
- Save %
- 88.5
- Goals allowed
- 9
- Close-range shots %
- 35.9
Colten Ellis
Buffalo Sabres · Last start: Oct 27
4 / 4 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 82
- Save %
- 90.2
- Goals allowed
- 8
- Close-range shots %
- 26.8
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 11, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Tampa Bay Lightning
- xG for / game
- 3.56
- xG against / game
- 2.79
- xG differential / game
- 0.77
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Buffalo Sabres
- xG for / game
- 3.17
- xG against / game
- 3.59
- xG differential / game
- -0.41
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 11, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 63.5
- Corsi share (%)
- 55.1
- Fenwick share (%)
- 55.6
- Faceoff win %
- 49.5
- Penalties / game
- 3.7
Shots / game: 31.1 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 32.4 ft
Buffalo Sabres
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 57.2
- Corsi share (%)
- 50.0
- Fenwick share (%)
- 49.0
- Faceoff win %
- 47.4
- Penalties / game
- 4.3
Shots / game: 27.6 · Shooting: 9.4% · Avg distance: 30.7 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
TBL
|
Metric |
BUF
|
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Points | 13 |
| 0.682 | Points % | 0.542 |
| 38 | Goals for | 33 |
| 34 | Goals against | 41 |
| 4 | Goal differential | -8 |
| OT1 | Current streak | W1 |
Road versus home
|
TBL road
|
Metric |
BUF home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 6 |
| 2 | Wins | 3 |
| 5 | Points | 6 |
| -5 | Goal differential | -5 |
Last 10 games
|
TBL
|
Metric |
BUF
|
|---|---|---|
| 7-2-1 | Record | 4-3-3 |
| 15 | Points | 11 |
| 37 | Goals for | 26 |
| 29 | Goals against | 32 |
| 8 | Goal differential | -6 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
TBL
4 wins
10
games reviewed
BUF
6 wins
Total goals37 – 41
Goal differential
-4
/
+4
Goals per game3.7 / 4.1
Shots per game27.9 / 31.2
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2026 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
2 - 4 | 25 - 29 | View |
| Mar 8, 2026 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
7 - 8 | 28 - 42 | View |
| Feb 28, 2026 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
6 - 2 | 35 - 38 | View |
| Feb 3, 2026 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
3 - 4 | 26 - 35 | View |
| Apr 13, 2025 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
4 - 7 | 25 - 31 | View |
| Apr 5, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
2 - 3 | 24 - 38 | View |
| Mar 6, 2025 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
5 - 6 | 33 - 26 | View |
| Apr 15, 2024 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
4 - 2 | 34 - 33 | View |
| Feb 29, 2024 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
3 - 2 | 23 - 23 | View |
| Jan 20, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
3 - 1 | 16 - 27 | View |