Tampa Bay Lightning vs Buffalo Sabres prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for April 6, 2026
Get the playerWON NHL prediction for the Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres matchup on April 6, 2026. playerWON’s machine-learning model currently gives the Tampa Bay Lightning a 54.2% win probability.
🤖 Model favours Tampa Bay Lightning
(54.2%)
Compare market odds, fair odds, and value below.
April 6, 2026
Visitor Model vs Market
Tampa Bay Lightning
54.2%
Fair American: -118
Fair Decimal: 1.85
Best Market: -113 · FanDuel
Market Implied: 53.1%
Edge: +1.1%
EV: +2.2%
Calculate Value →
Home Model vs Market
Buffalo Sabres
45.8%
Fair American: +118
Fair Decimal: 2.18
Best Market: +100 · BetOnline.ag
Market Implied: 50.0%
Edge: -4.2%
EV: -8.4%
Calculate Value →
📊 Season Overview
|
TBL
|
Metric |
BUF
|
|---|---|---|
| 106 | Points | 109 |
| 0.646 | Points % | 0.665 |
| 290 | Goals For | 288 |
| 231 | Goals Against | 241 |
| 59 | Goal Differential | 47 |
| L1 | Current Streak | OT1 |
🚍 Road vs 🏠 Home
|
TBL (Road)
|
Metric |
BUF (Home)
|
|---|---|---|
| 41 | Games | 41 |
| 24 | Wins | 26 |
| 53 | Points | 57 |
| 37 | Goal Differential | 30 |
🔥 Last 10 Games
|
TBL
|
Metric |
BUF
|
|---|---|---|
| 5-5-0 | Record | 6-3-1 |
| 10 | Points | 13 |
| 26 | Goals For | 34 |
| 30 | Goals Against | 30 |
| -4 | Goal Differential | 4 |
🥅 Last 10 Head-to-Head Games
|
TBL
|
H2H Summary |
BUF
|
|---|---|---|
| 4-6 | Record | 6-4 |
| 37 | Total Goals | 40 |
| -3 | Goal Differential | +3 |
| 3.7 | Goals / Game | 4.0 |
| 27.9 | Shots / Game | 31.4 |
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
Buffalo Sabres
@
|
7 - 8 | 28 - 42 | View |
| Feb 28, 2026 |
Buffalo Sabres
@
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
|
6 - 2 | 35 - 38 | View |
| Feb 3, 2026 |
Buffalo Sabres
@
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
|
3 - 4 | 26 - 35 | View |
| Apr 13, 2025 |
Buffalo Sabres
@
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
|
4 - 7 | 25 - 31 | View |
| Apr 5, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
Buffalo Sabres
@
|
2 - 3 | 24 - 38 | View |
| Mar 6, 2025 |
Buffalo Sabres
@
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
|
5 - 6 | 33 - 26 | View |
| Apr 15, 2024 |
Buffalo Sabres
@
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
|
4 - 2 | 34 - 33 | View |
| Feb 29, 2024 |
Buffalo Sabres
@
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
|
3 - 2 | 23 - 23 | View |
| Jan 20, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
Buffalo Sabres
@
|
3 - 1 | 16 - 27 | View |
| Oct 17, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
Buffalo Sabres
@
|
2 - 3 | 25 - 31 | View |
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s machine-learning model, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.