Tampa Bay Lightning vs Buffalo Sabres prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for April 6, 2026

NHL matchup

Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres

View the PlayerWON model prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for April 6, 2026.

April 6, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

50-26-6
at
Home

Buffalo Sabres

50-23-9
Model favourite Tampa Bay Lightning at 54.2%
Prediction

Model versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Away team

Tampa Bay Lightning

54.2%
Fair American -118
Fair decimal 1.85
Best market -113 · FanDuel
Market implied 53.1%
Edge +1.1%
Expected value +2.2%
Calculate value
Buffalo Sabres logo
Home team

Buffalo Sabres

45.8%
Fair American +118
Fair decimal 2.18
Best market +100 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 50.0%
Edge -4.2%
Expected value -8.4%
Calculate value
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Buffalo Sabres BUF
106Points109
0.646Points %0.665
290Goals for288
231Goals against241
59Goal differential47
L1Current streakOT1
Road versus home
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL road
Metric
Buffalo Sabres BUF home
41Games41
24Wins26
53Points57
37Goal differential30
Last 10 games
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Buffalo Sabres BUF
5-5-0Record6-3-1
10Points13
26Goals for34
30Goals against30
-4Goal differential4
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 4 wins
10 games reviewed
Buffalo Sabres BUF 6 wins
Total goals37 – 40
Goal differential -3 / +3
Goals per game3.7 / 4.0
Shots per game27.9 / 31.4
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 8, 2026
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
7 - 8 28 - 42 View
Feb 28, 2026
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
6 - 2 35 - 38 View
Feb 3, 2026
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 4 26 - 35 View
Apr 13, 2025
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 7 25 - 31 View
Apr 5, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
2 - 3 24 - 38 View
Mar 6, 2025
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
5 - 6 33 - 26 View
Apr 15, 2024
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 2 34 - 33 View
Feb 29, 2024
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 2 23 - 23 View
Jan 20, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
3 - 1 16 - 27 View
Oct 17, 2023
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
2 - 3 25 - 31 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s machine-learning model, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings TBL BUF