Skip to content

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Boston Bruins prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 18, 2027

NHL matchup

Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for January 18, 2027.

January 18, 2027 · 12:30 PM CST
Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

7-3-1

38.9%
at
Home

Boston Bruins

9-2-1

61.1% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Boston Bruins at 61.1%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Away team

Tampa Bay Lightning

38.9%
Fair American +157
Fair decimal 2.57
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Jan 18, 2027.

Boston Bruins

All Model Picks

Bets
8
Record
6-2
Net units
3.03
ROI
37.9%

Value Picks

Bets
7
Record
4-3
Net units
0.79
ROI
11.3%

Market Favourite

Bets
6
Record
6-0
Net units
4.68
ROI
78.1%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 18. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

123:37 together · 10 games

xG share61.5%
Corsi for / against
154 / 103
Fenwick for / against
114 / 80
Corsi share
59.9%
Fenwick share
58.8%
xG for / against
7.27 / 4.55
All observed combinations

Boston Bruins

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

113:24 together · 9 games

xG share48.5%
Corsi for / against
96 / 122
Fenwick for / against
70 / 81
Corsi share
44.0%
Fenwick share
46.4%
xG for / against
5.44 / 5.77
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Dennis Hildeby

Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 24

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
78
Save %
88.5
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
35.9

Jeremy Swayman

Boston Bruins · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
131
Save %
90.8
Goals allowed
12
Close-range shots %
32.8
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 18, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Tampa Bay Lightning

xG for / game
3.56
xG against / game
2.79
xG differential / game
0.77

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Boston Bruins

xG for / game
3.30
xG against / game
3.04
xG differential / game
0.26

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 18, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
63.5
Corsi share (%)
55.1
Fenwick share (%)
55.6
Faceoff win %
49.5
Penalties / game
3.7

Shots / game: 31.1 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 32.4 ft

Boston Bruins

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
51.1
Corsi share (%)
46.5
Fenwick share (%)
48.3
Faceoff win %
54.0
Penalties / game
5.0

Shots / game: 26.2 · Shooting: 15.6% · Avg distance: 31.2 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Boston Bruins BOS
15Points19
0.682Points %0.792
38Goals for48
34Goals against26
4Goal differential22
OT1Current streakW2
Road versus home
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL road
Metric
Boston Bruins BOS home
6Games6
2Wins5
5Points10
-5Goal differential17
Last 10 games
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Boston Bruins BOS
7-2-1Record7-2-1
15Points15
37Goals for41
29Goals against23
8Goal differential18
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 8 wins
10 games reviewed
Boston Bruins BOS 2 wins
Total goals33 – 26
Goal differential +7 / -7
Goals per game3.3 / 2.6
Shots per game31.3 / 26.0
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Apr 11, 2026
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins Boston Bruins
2 - 1 24 - 20 View
Apr 4, 2026
Boston Bruins Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 3 22 - 23 View
Feb 1, 2026
Boston Bruins Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
5 - 6 34 - 46 View
Oct 13, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins Boston Bruins
4 - 3 23 - 33 View
Mar 15, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins Boston Bruins
6 - 2 40 - 12 View
Mar 8, 2025
Boston Bruins Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 0 25 - 25 View
Jan 14, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins Boston Bruins
2 - 6 45 - 24 View
Jan 9, 2025
Boston Bruins Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 4 28 - 31 View
Mar 27, 2024
Boston Bruins Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 3 24 - 31 View
Feb 13, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins Boston Bruins
3 - 2 25 - 38 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings TBL BOS