Tampa Bay Lightning vs Boston Bruins prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for April 11, 2026

NHL matchup

Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins

View the PlayerWON model prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for April 11, 2026.

April 11, 2026 · 11:30 AM CST
Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

50-26-6
at
Home

Boston Bruins

45-27-10
Model favourite Tampa Bay Lightning at 57.0%
Prediction

Model versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Away team

Tampa Bay Lightning

57.0%
Fair American -133
Fair decimal 1.75
Best market -113 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 53.1%
Edge +3.9%
Expected value +7.4%
Calculate value
Boston Bruins logo
Home team

Boston Bruins

43.0%
Fair American +133
Fair decimal 2.33
Best market +102 · Bovada
Market implied 49.5%
Edge -6.5%
Expected value -13.1%
Calculate value
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Boston Bruins BOS
106Points100
0.646Points %0.610
290Goals for272
231Goals against250
59Goal differential22
L1Current streakW2
Road versus home
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL road
Metric
Boston Bruins BOS home
41Games41
24Wins29
53Points59
37Goal differential40
Last 10 games
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Boston Bruins BOS
5-5-0Record5-3-2
10Points12
26Goals for32
30Goals against26
-4Goal differential6
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 7 wins
10 games reviewed
Boston Bruins BOS 3 wins
Total goals34 – 32
Goal differential +2 / -2
Goals per game3.4 / 3.2
Shots per game31.5 / 26.6
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Apr 4, 2026
Boston Bruins Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 3 22 - 23 View
Feb 1, 2026
Boston Bruins Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
5 - 6 34 - 46 View
Oct 13, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins Boston Bruins
4 - 3 23 - 33 View
Mar 15, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins Boston Bruins
6 - 2 40 - 12 View
Mar 8, 2025
Boston Bruins Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 0 25 - 25 View
Jan 14, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins Boston Bruins
2 - 6 45 - 24 View
Jan 9, 2025
Boston Bruins Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 4 28 - 31 View
Mar 27, 2024
Boston Bruins Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 3 24 - 31 View
Feb 13, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins Boston Bruins
3 - 2 25 - 38 View
Jan 6, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins Boston Bruins
3 - 7 26 - 26 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s machine-learning model, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings TBL BOS