Tampa Bay Lightning vs Boston Bruins prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for April 11, 2026
Get the playerWON NHL prediction for the Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins matchup on April 11, 2026. playerWON’s machine-learning model currently gives the Tampa Bay Lightning a 57.0% win probability.
🤖 Model favours Tampa Bay Lightning
(57.0%)
Compare market odds, fair odds, and value below.
April 11, 2026
Visitor Model vs Market
Tampa Bay Lightning
57.0%
Fair American: -133
Fair Decimal: 1.75
Best Market: -113 · BetOnline.ag
Market Implied: 53.1%
Edge: +3.9%
EV: +7.4%
Calculate Value →
Home Model vs Market
Boston Bruins
43.0%
Fair American: +133
Fair Decimal: 2.33
Best Market: +102 · Bovada
Market Implied: 49.5%
Edge: -6.5%
EV: -13.1%
Calculate Value →
📊 Season Overview
|
TBL
|
Metric |
BOS
|
|---|---|---|
| 106 | Points | 100 |
| 0.646 | Points % | 0.610 |
| 290 | Goals For | 272 |
| 231 | Goals Against | 250 |
| 59 | Goal Differential | 22 |
| L1 | Current Streak | W2 |
🚍 Road vs 🏠 Home
|
TBL (Road)
|
Metric |
BOS (Home)
|
|---|---|---|
| 41 | Games | 41 |
| 24 | Wins | 29 |
| 53 | Points | 59 |
| 37 | Goal Differential | 40 |
🔥 Last 10 Games
|
TBL
|
Metric |
BOS
|
|---|---|---|
| 5-5-0 | Record | 5-3-2 |
| 10 | Points | 12 |
| 26 | Goals For | 32 |
| 30 | Goals Against | 26 |
| -4 | Goal Differential | 6 |
🥅 Last 10 Head-to-Head Games
|
TBL
|
H2H Summary |
BOS
|
|---|---|---|
| 7-3 | Record | 3-7 |
| 34 | Total Goals | 32 |
| +2 | Goal Differential | -2 |
| 3.4 | Goals / Game | 3.2 |
| 31.5 | Shots / Game | 26.6 |
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 |
Boston Bruins
@
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
|
1 - 3 | 22 - 23 | View |
| Feb 1, 2026 |
Boston Bruins
@
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
|
5 - 6 | 34 - 46 | View |
| Oct 13, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
Boston Bruins
@
|
4 - 3 | 23 - 33 | View |
| Mar 15, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
Boston Bruins
@
|
6 - 2 | 40 - 12 | View |
| Mar 8, 2025 |
Boston Bruins
@
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
|
4 - 0 | 25 - 25 | View |
| Jan 14, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
Boston Bruins
@
|
2 - 6 | 45 - 24 | View |
| Jan 9, 2025 |
Boston Bruins
@
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
|
1 - 4 | 28 - 31 | View |
| Mar 27, 2024 |
Boston Bruins
@
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
|
1 - 3 | 24 - 31 | View |
| Feb 13, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
Boston Bruins
@
|
3 - 2 | 25 - 38 | View |
| Jan 6, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
Boston Bruins
@
|
3 - 7 | 26 - 26 | View |
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s machine-learning model, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.