Away team
St. Louis Blues
37.8%
Fair American
+165
Fair decimal
2.65
St. Louis Blues vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 22, 2026
NHL matchup
St. Louis Blues at Tampa Bay Lightning
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 22, 2026.
December 22, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Tampa Bay Lightning at 62.2%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Tampa Bay Lightning
62.2%
Fair American
-165
Fair decimal
1.61
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 22, 2026.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 4
- Record
- 2-2
- Net units
- 0.60
- ROI
- 15.0%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 5
- Record
- 3-2
- Net units
- 1.70
- ROI
- 34.0%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 2-4
- Net units
- -2.49
- ROI
- -41.4%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 5-1
- Net units
- 1.45
- ROI
- 24.2%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Net units
- 0.00
- ROI
- —
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 6-2
- Net units
- 1.06
- ROI
- 13.3%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 22. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
St. Louis Blues
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
108:25 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 99 / 102
- Fenwick for / against
- 70 / 77
- Corsi share
- 49.3%
- Fenwick share
- 47.6%
- xG for / against
- 4.63 / 4.76
Defense pair
109:44 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 96 / 102
- Fenwick for / against
- 67 / 86
- Corsi share
- 48.5%
- Fenwick share
- 43.8%
- xG for / against
- 5.37 / 5.98
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
95:17 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 85 / 83
- Fenwick for / against
- 64 / 59
- Corsi share
- 50.6%
- Fenwick share
- 52.0%
- xG for / against
- 3.69 / 3.31
Defense pair
123:37 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 154 / 103
- Fenwick for / against
- 114 / 80
- Corsi share
- 59.9%
- Fenwick share
- 58.8%
- xG for / against
- 7.27 / 4.55
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
St. Louis Blues
Expected starter unavailable.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Jordan Binnington
St. Louis Blues · Last start: Oct 27
4 / 4 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 103
- Save %
- 84.5
- Goals allowed
- 16
- Close-range shots %
- 35.0
Dennis Hildeby
Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 24
3 / 3 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 78
- Save %
- 88.5
- Goals allowed
- 9
- Close-range shots %
- 35.9
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 22, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
St. Louis Blues
- xG for / game
- 3.12
- xG against / game
- 2.68
- xG differential / game
- 0.44
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Tampa Bay Lightning
- xG for / game
- 3.56
- xG against / game
- 2.79
- xG differential / game
- 0.77
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 22, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
St. Louis Blues
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 57.0
- Corsi share (%)
- 51.6
- Fenwick share (%)
- 49.6
- Faceoff win %
- 51.5
- Penalties / game
- 2.8
Shots / game: 28.7 · Shooting: 10.5% · Avg distance: 30.9 ft
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 63.5
- Corsi share (%)
- 55.1
- Fenwick share (%)
- 55.6
- Faceoff win %
- 49.5
- Penalties / game
- 3.7
Shots / game: 31.1 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 32.4 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
STL
|
Metric |
TBL
|
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Points | 15 |
| 0.458 | Points % | 0.682 |
| 35 | Goals for | 38 |
| 37 | Goals against | 34 |
| -2 | Goal differential | 4 |
| L2 | Current streak | OT1 |
Road versus home
|
STL road
|
Metric |
TBL home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 5 |
| 2 | Wins | 5 |
| 4 | Points | 10 |
| -2 | Goal differential | 9 |
Last 10 games
|
STL
|
Metric |
TBL
|
|---|---|---|
| 4-5-1 | Record | 7-2-1 |
| 9 | Points | 15 |
| 30 | Goals for | 37 |
| 31 | Goals against | 29 |
| -1 | Goal differential | 8 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
STL
4 wins
10
games reviewed
TBL
6 wins
Total goals24 – 33
Goal differential
-9
/
+9
Goals per game2.4 / 3.3
Shots per game27.1 / 28.2
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
St. Louis Blues
|
2 - 3 | 36 - 21 | View |
| Dec 22, 2025 |
St. Louis Blues
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
1 - 4 | 24 - 17 | View |
| Dec 19, 2024 |
St. Louis Blues
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
1 - 3 | 32 - 18 | View |
| Nov 5, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
St. Louis Blues
|
2 - 3 | 23 - 23 | View |
| Dec 19, 2023 |
St. Louis Blues
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
1 - 6 | 29 - 33 | View |
| Nov 14, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
St. Louis Blues
|
0 - 5 | 30 - 29 | View |
| Jan 14, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
St. Louis Blues
|
4 - 2 | 30 - 25 | View |
| Nov 25, 2022 |
St. Louis Blues
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
2 - 5 | 27 - 27 | View |
| Dec 2, 2021 |
St. Louis Blues
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
2 - 4 | 28 - 35 | View |
| Nov 30, 2021 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
St. Louis Blues
|
3 - 4 | 33 - 33 | View |